Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: California Golden Bears (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x625d36f7e58723839e6a6ff03640e6edd774dd9724d0e21a6faa0aca220d9681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California Golden Bearsof California Golden Bears, UIC Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked UIC Flames | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 2,082$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 1,778$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.6 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked UIC Flames | 49c | 1,636$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.8 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed California Golden Bears | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed UIC Flames | 50c | 989.27$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.63 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 576$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.48 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California Golden Bears | 47c | 528.43$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.37 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed UIC Flames | 49c | 509$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.41 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked UIC Flames | 54c | 370.56$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked California Golden Bears | 47c | 333.07$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.53 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 265.77$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.33 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed California Golden Bears | 44c | 248.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed UIC Flames | 53c | 104.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 81.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…2e70backed UIC Flames | 54c | 77.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked UIC Flames | 53c | 60.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 59.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed California Golden Bears | 50c | 49.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked UIC Flames | 52c | 47.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked UIC Flames | 53c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed UIC Flames | 54c | 29.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed UIC Flames | 53c | 20.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-6.5)this page
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-4.5)California Golden Bears won
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-5.5)California Golden Bears won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden BearsCalifornia Golden Bears won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 149.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 150.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 151.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 154.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 155.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 156.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.