Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd86bd142cef2231410f6077bec81038f254761b5249132405c5f539de9b72e4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kostyukof Pegula, Kostyuk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pegula | 4c | 30,158$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.99 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pegula | 3c | 22,058$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.37 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pegula | 31c | 5,113$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.81 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pegula | 1c | 1,676$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…4d6abacked Pegula | 22c | 1,600$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Pegula | 22c | 1,405$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.97 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Pegula | 57c | 1,350$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.6 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…a332backed Pegula | 58c | 1,207$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Pegula | 6c | 1,084$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Pegula | 19c | 1,001$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 107 | 29%31 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Pegula | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7a…abb7backed Pegula | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Pegula | 2c | 922.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Kostyuk | 44c | 918.18$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.18 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kostyuk | 43c | 834.37$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.57 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Pegula | 53c | 832.08$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 1,187 | 62.8%746 W · 441 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…da0ebacked Pegula | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Pegula | 49c | 585$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…7b83backed Pegula | 59c | 542$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked Kostyuk | 43c | 536.59$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.7 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pegula | 4c | 524.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Pegula | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Kostyuk | 44c | 489.67$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.17 | 277 | 32.1%89 W · 188 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pegula | 10c | 475.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Pegula | 19c | 455.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Kostyuk | 46c | 380.87$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.87 | 360 | 38.9%140 W · 220 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Pegula | 4c | 351.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pegula | 55c | 346.51$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.02 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kostyuk | 43c | 325.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.58 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Pegula | 58c | 310.34$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Pegula | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Kostyuk | 42c | 248$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Kostyuk | 45c | 221.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Pegula | 7c | 216.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 13.8%17 W · 106 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Pegula | 28c | 214.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Pegula | 21c | 204.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Pegula | 57c | 200.09$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pegula | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 7,791 | 47.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L | +39.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Kostyuk | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1,162 | 44.2%514 W · 648 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Kostyuk | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…e23dbacked Pegula | 23c | 195.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…dd5ebacked Pegula | 61c | 190.34$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Kostyuk | 44c | 185.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Pegula | 8c | 176.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Pegula | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…d46ebacked Pegula | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Pegula | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Pegula | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Kostyuk | 45c | 125.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…0512backed Pegula | 58c | 120.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Pegula | 17c | 104.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pegula | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Pegula | 58c | 96.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…6a8ebacked Pegula | 57c | 82.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Kostyuk | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Pegula | 58c | 63.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Kostyuk | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…f06ebacked Kostyuk | 43c | 58.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…5c54backed Kostyuk | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pegula | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Pegula | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Pegula | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Kostyuk | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kostyuk | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…ac7dbacked Pegula | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Kostyuk | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kostyuk | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…0b70backed Kostyuk | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.