College Football · resolved market
Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986e65e8d93e0baeeddd7b4be212064e96b0645d17868f32dc01aaa86da7c5ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x108d…b85dbacked Under | 52c | 2,828$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Over | 45c | 1,538$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 197.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 55c | 129$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 51.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 43.5this page
- Connecticut vs. ArmyArmy won
- Connecticut vs. Army: 1H MoneylineArmy won
- Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 42.5Over won
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Army (-7.5)Army won
- Spread: Army (-8.5)Army won
- Spread: Army (-9.5)Army won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.