College Football · resolved market
Spread: Army (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ff9a94578a42e0052f86f93f4d67125235a4192066b8da32b75b0ef4a6b627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Armyof Army, Connecticut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Army | 48c | 153,889$73,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,898.55 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Connecticut | 51c | 108,878$55,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,078.9 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Connecticut | 53c | 49,926$26,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,506.11 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Army | 50c | 41,379$20,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,689.57 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Connecticut | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,399.97 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Connecticut | 52c | 28,714$14,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,931.23 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Connecticut | 53c | 20,021$10,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,610.72 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Army | 48c | 17,565$8,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,213.08 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Army | 49c | 14,717$7,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,445.45 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Connecticut | 51c | 10,050$5,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,125 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Army | 49c | 6,500$3,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Army | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…9c9abacked Army | 17c | 4,996$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,124.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +473.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Connecticut | 52c | 4,763$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.57 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Army | 50c | 3,046$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Army | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Army | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Army | 48c | 1,030$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.6 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Army | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…f1c3backed Army | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Army | 49c | 872$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.06 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Army | 48c | 544.39$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.18 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Army | 47c | 520.17$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.69 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Connecticut | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…baafbacked Connecticut | 52c | 454.62$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Army | 49c | 435.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.34 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Connecticut | 53c | 431.68$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Connecticut | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Army | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Connecticut | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Army | 46c | 219.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.86 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Army | 49c | 210$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.95 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Army | 49c | 206.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Army | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Army | 48c | 192.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Army | 48c | 152.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Army | 48c | 145.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Army | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Connecticut | 52c | 111.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Connecticut | 55c | 106$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked Connecticut | 53c | 103.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Army | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Connecticut | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a346backed Army | 49c | 98.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Army | 49c | 95.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…aa64backed Army | 49c | 83.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Connecticut | 53c | 71.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…bb98backed Army | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Connecticut | 53c | 63.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Connecticut | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…fdcebacked Connecticut | 52c | 51.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Army | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Connecticut | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Connecticut | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Army | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Connecticut | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Connecticut | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Connecticut | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a2…12b2backed Connecticut | 55c | 34.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Army | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked Army | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Connecticut | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3f0abacked Connecticut | 52c | 28.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Connecticut | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Connecticut | 52c | 23.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Connecticut | 53c | 21.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Connecticut | 53c | 19.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Army (-8.5)this page
- Connecticut vs. ArmyArmy won
- Connecticut vs. Army: 1H MoneylineArmy won
- Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 42.5Over won
- Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 43.5Over won
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Army (-7.5)Army won
- Spread: Army (-9.5)Army won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.