College Football · resolved market
Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b40c6ac9bb56e7635fad415918b988fb130a7dc55d0f59017d9104387dc7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9201…e578backed Under | 10c | 9,815$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 8,074$4,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.85 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 5,958$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,007.68 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 10c | 4,998$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 10c | 3,074$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.4 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 48c | 2,450$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.08 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 2,246$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.57 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 38c | 1,150$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.41 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Over | 62c | 1,129$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 10c | 1,081$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Under | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 52c | 103$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 52c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…aa64backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Under | 52c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 42.5this page
- Connecticut vs. ArmyArmy won
- Connecticut vs. Army: 1H MoneylineArmy won
- Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 43.5Over won
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Army (-7.5)Army won
- Spread: Army (-8.5)Army won
- Spread: Army (-9.5)Army won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.