College Football · resolved market
Spread: Army (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318163b4ec9a76e7cd9cd1e1d0e9252e9d5d09746782f66dea03684e6ac30d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Armyof Army, Connecticut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Army | 46c | 23,424$10,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,658.99 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Connecticut | 55c | 22,452$12,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,265.09 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Connecticut | 54c | 18,519$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Army | 46c | 10,184$4,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,496.64 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Army | 46c | 9,421$4,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,124.86 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Connecticut | 52c | 9,406$4,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,881.35 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Army | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Army | 47c | 3,685$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.02 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Army | 45c | 1,917$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.48 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Army | 47c | 1,610$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.09 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed Connecticut | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Connecticut | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…949bbacked Connecticut | 55c | 850$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f05…4480backed Connecticut | 52c | 684.23$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Army | 48c | 674.67$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.83 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Army | 48c | 664.23$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.4 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Army | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Connecticut | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Army | 47c | 499.96$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.98 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Army | 46c | 364.88$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.03 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Connecticut | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Connecticut | 52c | 223.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Connecticut | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Army | 46c | 186.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Army | 47c | 177$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Connecticut | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Army | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Army | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Connecticut | 52c | 88.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Connecticut | 41c | 80.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Army | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Connecticut | 50c | 74.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Connecticut | 44c | 73.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Army | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc034…3ff7backed Army | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…37f4backed Army | 56c | 49.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…449cbacked Connecticut | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Army | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Connecticut | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Army | 47c | 25.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Connecticut | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Army (-9.5)this page
- Connecticut vs. ArmyArmy won
- Connecticut vs. Army: 1H MoneylineArmy won
- Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 42.5Over won
- Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 43.5Over won
- O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Army (-7.5)Army won
- Spread: Army (-8.5)Army won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.