Spread: Army (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc52a93c52963943315a8e3880f171fc9b90bf9f8b6333de606e7f8c035e17a28

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Armyof Army, Connecticut
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $282,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $283,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,925 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Connecticut	49c	138,510$68,328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68,328.05	935	48.4%453 W · 482 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Army	50c	62,511$31,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,160.46	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+13.3wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Army	50c	45,000$22,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,500	118	46.6%55 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Army	51c	38,426$19,488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,938.43	524	49.4%259 W · 265 L	-2.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Army	51c	30,947$15,773 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,173.46	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Connecticut	51c	28,315$14,396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,396.22	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-5.0wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3080…5f29backed Connecticut	50c	27,113$13,555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,555.39	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Army	50c	18,918$9,459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,459	261	47.9%125 W · 136 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Army	51c	17,064$8,667 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,396.85	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Connecticut	50c	15,000$7,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,500	399	54.1%216 W · 183 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Connecticut	49c	10,735$5,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,260	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-7.0wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-36%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Army	50c	9,000$4,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,500	385	46%177 W · 208 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Army	51c	5,000$2,565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,434.98	94	57.4%54 W · 40 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Army	49c	3,498$1,717 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,780.81	628	43.6%274 W · 354 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc5…c31fbacked Connecticut	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Connecticut	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Connecticut	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$959.93	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Connecticut	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	157	51%80 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Connecticut	55c	1,200$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed Connecticut	65c	1,199$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Army	45c	1,198$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.77	526	41.8%220 W · 306 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Connecticut	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Army	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	84	48.8%41 W · 43 L	+6.8wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Connecticut	50c	866$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	-10.4wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-19%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Army	51c	865.21$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.95	659	45.2%298 W · 361 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Army	50c	777$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.5	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Connecticut	43c	690.66$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.86	862	43.7%377 W · 485 L	+6.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Army	50c	689$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.5	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Connecticut	49c	687.84$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.04	227	50.7%115 W · 112 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Army	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Connecticut	50c	468.54$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.65	588	50.2%295 W · 293 L	+23.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed Connecticut	50c	426$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Connecticut	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Army	50c	320$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	244	36.9%90 W · 154 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Army	53c	283.02$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.02	174	50%87 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Connecticut	50c	260$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-22%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Army	76c	244$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.71	269	40.5%109 W · 160 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4335…4399backed Army	60c	220$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Connecticut	40c	200$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	127	55.9%71 W · 56 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Army	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Connecticut	49c	199.99$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Army	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+2.9wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Army	51c	185.47$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.88	25	52%13 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Connecticut	49c	161.68$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.22	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-5.1wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98cd…9417backed Connecticut	48c	143$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.64	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Connecticut	51c	140$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.4	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-12.3wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Connecticut	50c	134$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.9	110	56.4%62 W · 48 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Army	53c	132.08$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.08	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c17…0458backed Army	51c	122.08$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.08	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7567…0923backed Connecticut	48c	113$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.24	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Connecticut	55c	101.82$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Army	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.24per pick	48cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Connecticut	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	293	51.9%152 W · 141 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Army	51c	89$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.61	42	50%21 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…b8e6backed Connecticut	53c	79.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Army	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Army	51c	71.22$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.22	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+4.4wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+27%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9592…e568backed Army	51c	68.63$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.63	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f8…79a8backed Army	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.9	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed Army	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	42	61.9%26 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf492…29c2backed Army	57c	54.91$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Connecticut	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Connecticut	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	87	51.7%45 W · 42 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Army	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	73	32.9%24 W · 49 L	-7.9wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb76…4c2cbacked Army	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Army	52c	46.62$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.38	75	53.3%40 W · 35 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f7f…8c81backed Connecticut	50c	43.04$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7483…96a6backed Army	52c	42$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.16	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6e…e417backed Army	52c	42$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.16	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	54cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Army	47c	41.69$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.98	123	46.3%57 W · 66 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Connecticut	51c	40.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-31%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Connecticut	32c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Connecticut	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	50%27 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd243…2dcfbacked Army	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6422…a346backed Army	53c	37.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.57	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+5.4wins	+0.23per pick	46cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc94d…2b20backed Army	52c	34$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.32	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Connecticut	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	108	50.9%55 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Army	52c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdee3…7b2ebacked Army	52c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd5…57eebacked Connecticut	50c	25.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-60%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0138…e799backed Connecticut	50c	24.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+18%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13a4…581ebacked Army	52c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.52	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Army	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	97	54.6%53 W · 44 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2d…ffcebacked Army	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Connecticut	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Connecticut	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58a3…4492backed Army	79c	15.15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.18	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Army (-7.5)this page
Connecticut vs. ArmyArmy won
Connecticut vs. Army: 1H MoneylineArmy won
Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 42.5Over won
Connecticut vs. Army: O/U 43.5Over won
O/U 44.5Over won
Spread: Army (-8.5)Army won
Spread: Army (-9.5)Army won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Army (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event