Tennis · resolved market
ASB Classic: Ella Seidel vs Sonay Kartal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2c7a6fc56bf06c8d33d412307054a858d21fa9d948d5bdbf93e0dcbe14c9e1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kartalof Seidel, Kartal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Kartal | 70c | 7,911$5,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.92 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Seidel | 31c | 7,000$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.94 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Seidel | 29c | 5,023$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.7 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Seidel | 0c | 3,987$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seidel | 28c | 1,868$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.69 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kartal | 70c | 1,800$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.62 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kartal | 70c | 1,360$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.46 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kartal | 76c | 1,046$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.14 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Seidel | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kartal | 68c | 957.52$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.17 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Seidel | 28c | 840.77$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.41 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…e843backed Seidel | 29c | 802$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Kartal | 72c | 760.77$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Seidel | 41c | 612.39$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.98 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…7007backed Seidel | 28c | 585$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kartal | 69c | 564.51$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Kartal | 70c | 560$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kartal | 71c | 557.34$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…b81fbacked Seidel | 19c | 536.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…c3e1backed Seidel | 7c | 509.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kartal | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Seidel | 28c | 500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Seidel | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Seidel | 27c | 411.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…f91ebacked Kartal | 71c | 402$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…5199backed Kartal | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Seidel | 3c | 348.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Seidel | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Seidel | 40c | 332.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b5…b7cfbacked Kartal | 72c | 326$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Seidel | 4c | 325.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Seidel | 21c | 263.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…2fccbacked Kartal | 72c | 259$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Kartal | 74c | 254.01$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Seidel | 28c | 253.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0c…90a3backed Seidel | 38c | 229$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Kartal | 72c | 208$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Kartal | 71c | 190$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Seidel | 6c | 179.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Seidel | 45c | 177.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Kartal | 72c | 161.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Kartal | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Kartal | 75c | 115.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Seidel | 12c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Kartal | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Seidel | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…cfeebacked Seidel | 44c | 88.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Kartal | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…8a9bbacked Kartal | 61c | 80.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4598backed Kartal | 75c | 71.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767f…6d4cbacked Kartal | 77c | 67.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Kartal | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Seidel | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…3750backed Seidel | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Seidel | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6257…99f6backed Kartal | 71c | 53.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Seidel | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Seidel | 40c | 52.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Seidel | 29c | 51.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…70e3backed Seidel | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Seidel | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Seidel | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Seidel | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Seidel | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Kartal | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Kartal | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Seidel | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Seidel | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Seidel | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Seidel | 31c | 36.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Seidel | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Seidel | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Kartal | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Kartal | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…9719backed Seidel | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…6899backed Seidel | 48c | 27.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Kartal | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Kartal | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Kartal | 69c | 15.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Kartal | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…68fcbacked Kartal | 74c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ASB Classic: Ella Seidel vs Sonay Kartalthis page
- Seidel vs. Kartal: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Seidel vs. Kartal: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Seidel vs. Kartal: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Seidel vs KartalKartal won
- Set Handicap: Kartal (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5)Kartal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.