NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c10433977ba527e3b99e6eed1f12fb9927b0b936b17ede66c09ea2f43c67bfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 24,714$12,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,102.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Over | 50c | 18,745$9,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,395.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 9,825$4,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,571.4 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…339abacked Under | 49c | 6,101$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 51c | 5,514$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.29 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Over | 52c | 1,577$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Over | 51c | 1,549$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Under | 50c | 1,502$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 1,500$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 50c | 1,298$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.99 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 54c | 1,229$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.73 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 57c | 884.6$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.6 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 52c | 788.02$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Under | 49c | 653.06$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.06 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…1b0ebacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…3d49backed Over | 53c | 260.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 53c | 249.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Under | 49c | 233.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Under | 49c | 122$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 67c | 106.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 43c | 91.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Under | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 53.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 50c | 51.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 50c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed Over | 51c | 23.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…1fe0backed Under | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…14ecbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chargers (-0.5)Texans won
- Omarion Hampton: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-4.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Texans (-9.5)Chargers won
- Texans vs. ChargersTexans won
- Texans vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 37.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.