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NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chargers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Chargers, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,401

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x11e2…26ccbacked Chargers45c16,931$7,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,618.739442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Texans53c15,399$8,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,237.519245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4106…ddcdbacked Texans53c10,180$5,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,784.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf9…bcb6backed Chargers47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Chargers47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texans55c9,799$5,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,367.5450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Chargers47c9,484$4,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,452.4153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Texans55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70010648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Chargers45c5,773$2,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,606.461,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Texans53c4,778$2,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.6586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc9…6786backed Texans53c4,694$2,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,206.341573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+29%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Chargers47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88014438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe1a…8bedbacked Texans55c3,464$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.811747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Chargers46c2,255$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.072740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Texans55c2,227$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.4960049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Chargers47c2,200$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0343943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5581…cb44backed Texans55c2,182$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.821752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Texans54c1,987$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.024641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chargers45c1,832$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.41,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Texans55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.184744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Chargers45c1,500$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.7365048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1458…3f84backed Chargers48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Texans53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.414763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Chargers48c640.99$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.682437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Chargers47c572$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.8414641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Chargers46c547$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.0147348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Texans55c545.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.83953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Texans53c499.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.999651%49 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Texans52c420$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x825a…9f6fbacked Texans53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc495…d35ebacked Chargers48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Texans54c370.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2913253%70 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Texans54c309.26$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.264942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40cb…4755backed Texans52c295$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Texans63c290.61$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5320757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8965…8b04backed Texans52c285$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Texans55c203.64$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.644768.1%32 W · 15 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Texans54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9226857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Texans55c190$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.535648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Texans55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.824344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e29…d484backed Texans69c163.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Texans55c145.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.455558.2%32 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Texans53c110.75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6536341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Texans55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4518245.6%83 W · 99 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Chargers46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9923647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f9…e58abacked Texans55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…b1e0backed Chargers47c85.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.973145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Texans54c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Chargers46c74.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0515446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ad…69ccbacked Texans71c71.14$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Texans54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.21844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Texans54c63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.981546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Chargers30c62.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6629439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Texans53c55.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133c…b30ebacked Chargers47c53.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Chargers47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Texans54c51.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8511260.7%68 W · 44 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Chargers44c49.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212459.7%74 W · 50 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2587…a117backed Texans54c47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.621163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…9b17backed Chargers46c47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c2a…37f4backed Texans71c45.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…d0c8backed Texans55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.455752.6%30 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2efb…a04ebacked Chargers47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Texans52c41.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2039754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b8…799cbacked Chargers48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Chargers45c39.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.566055%33 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dd4…617bbacked Texans55c30.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-54.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Texans54c30.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.944259.5%25 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ada…b8a0backed Texans54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.86850%34 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x888b…8f3fbacked Chargers46c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa27…dbdcbacked Chargers46c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.961163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd29c…609fbacked Chargers46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Chargers46c24.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0725956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Texans54c24.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.076659.1%39 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Texans48c24.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5234652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2999…50bcbacked Chargers46c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.581136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc86f…341dbacked Chargers46c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.581060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Texans53c22.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.575265.4%34 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Texans54c20.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.374062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Texans65c20.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.012934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.