TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Texans vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 19.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,569
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,569 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b88…5d08backed Under46c3,261$1,500 inWon+$1,760.8718650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over54c2,526$1,364 inLost-$1,363.975852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Under46c430.17$200 inWon+$230.1716648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd379…c870backed Over55c380$209 inLost-$209714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-70.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over54c329.33$178 inLost-$177.8439754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Under47c187$88 inWon+$99.112356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Under47c182$86 inWon+$96.461947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Under47c107$50 inWon+$56.712147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed Under47c84$39 inWon+$44.521471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Over60c66.67$40 inLost-$409948.5%48 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Under46c50$23 inWon+$276651.5%34 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over54c50$27 inLost-$2783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19fe…dbd8backed Over53c50$27 inLost-$26.550%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x749b…48d8backed Over53c48$25 inLost-$25.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Over53c47$25 inLost-$24.911553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed Over53c45$24 inLost-$23.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62e6…f251backed Over53c44$23 inLost-$23.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e48…c958backed Over53c40$21 inLost-$21.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x370a…cccebacked Over53c38$20 inLost-$20.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over53c33$17 inLost-$17.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Over53c32$17 inLost-$16.961030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5266…ddaebacked Over53c32$17 inLost-$16.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6061…1ff7backed Over53c32$17 inLost-$16.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.41per pick55cpaid-75.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0bd1…0100backed Over53c28$15 inLost-$14.8440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a20…8248backed Under47c27$13 inWon+$14.311338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7773…f936backed Over53c23$12 inLost-$12.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-45.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Over53c19$10 inLost-$10.071546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.