TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

1H Spread: Chargers (-0.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texansof Chargers, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,978 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e33…afb3backed Chargers48c2,078$998 inLost-$997.55939%23 W · 36 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-34.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Texans52c1,395$725 inWon+$669.4475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Texans55c728.97$400 inWon+$328.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Chargers45c100$45 inLost-$4515446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Texans51c98$50 inWon+$48.021957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Texans51c90$46 inWon+$44.12259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Texans51c88$45 inWon+$43.121861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Texans51c63$32 inWon+$30.871968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a20…8248backed Texans51c53$27 inWon+$25.971338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1315…d32ebacked Chargers49c39$19 inLost-$19.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Chargers49c38$19 inLost-$18.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…8137backed Chargers49c36$18 inLost-$17.64650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2999…50bcbacked Chargers49c32$16 inLost-$15.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77ed…53f7backed Chargers49c30$15 inLost-$14.71070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb520…60bcbacked Chargers49c29$14 inLost-$14.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68e8…4facbacked Chargers49c26$13 inLost-$12.741668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+29.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1c1…090dbacked Chargers49c26$13 inLost-$12.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d19…0b39backed Chargers49c24$12 inLost-$11.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x084c…7544backed Chargers48c23.95$11 inLost-$11.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-72.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Chargers49c23$11 inLost-$11.271020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-59%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.