NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9946adda8485a7543af0113020fc691228b1c5c50b21febe4f3306435644efaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9315…a744backed Chargers | 56c | 16,439$9,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,205.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Texans | 44c | 13,884$6,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,775.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…b190backed Chargers | 55c | 5,751$3,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,161.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 45c | 5,610$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.29 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Texans | 44c | 2,555$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Texans | 47c | 852.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.13 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chargers | 53c | 778$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.34 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chargers | 53c | 743.28$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.94 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Texans | 44c | 579.17$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.42 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Chargers | 55c | 499.97$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.98 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Texans | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chargers | 56c | 420.44$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.45 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texans | 44c | 406.31$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.09 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Texans | 45c | 366.67$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.27 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Chargers | 54c | 275.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Texans | 46c | 192$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Texans | 47c | 163.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…4085backed Chargers | 57c | 155.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Chargers | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Texans | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Texans | 45c | 137.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…88edbacked Texans | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Chargers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texans | 40c | 88.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked Chargers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Texans | 45c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…1ba3backed Chargers | 57c | 64.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Chargers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Texans | 45c | 29.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…609fbacked Chargers | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Chargers | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Chargers (-0.5)Texans won
- Omarion Hampton: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-4.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Texans (-9.5)Chargers won
- Texans vs. ChargersTexans won
- Texans vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 37.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.