NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chargers (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5384628c48508e049cead4993f74355b17a85c3bd0080cc5d361c183cb526cf6

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Texansof Chargers, Texans
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $168,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $172,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,457 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1496…a429backed Texans	51c	67,506$34,428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33,078.12	274	54.7%150 W · 124 L	+13.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Chargers	49c	59,217$28,936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,936.41	249	57%142 W · 107 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Chargers	49c	30,000$14,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,700	160	51.9%83 W · 77 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Texans	51c	22,841$11,649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,191.96	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Chargers	49c	22,222$10,889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,888.78	174	54.6%95 W · 79 L	+8.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Texans	49c	18,262$8,948 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,313.45	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Texans	51c	15,558$7,935 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,623.42	191	52.9%101 W · 90 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Chargers	51c	15,351$7,829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,829.01	312	40.7%127 W · 185 L	-22.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Texans	50c	10,054$5,027 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,026.83	92	45.7%42 W · 50 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Chargers	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+5.1wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Chargers	49c	4,080$1,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,999	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Chargers	49c	3,166$1,551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,551.14	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Chargers	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	85	51.8%44 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Chargers	51c	2,941$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-6.5wins	-0.23per pick	45cpaid	-50%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Texans	51c	2,767$1,411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,355.95	111	45.9%51 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Chargers	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	144	38.9%56 W · 88 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Texans	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	71	52.1%37 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Texans	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	148	37.2%55 W · 93 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Texans	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.08	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-20%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked Texans	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.08	50	46%23 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Chargers	49c	1,900$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931	147	57.1%84 W · 63 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Texans	52c	1,338$696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.43	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Texans	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	-7.8wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5903…a4fdbacked Texans	52c	961.54$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.54	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	24cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chargers	48c	859$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.32	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Texans	52c	769.23$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.23	163	51.5%84 W · 79 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Texans	51c	658.82$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.82	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Texans	51c	600$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294	141	51.8%73 W · 68 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Chargers	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Chargers	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	83	50.6%42 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Texans	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e57…21cbbacked Texans	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Texans	52c	282.56$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.85	363	41.9%152 W · 211 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Chargers	48c	277.72$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2513…91fbbacked Chargers	49c	270.24$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.42	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73cb…a632backed Texans	49c	219.97$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.19	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Texans	52c	207.69$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.69	49	51%25 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Chargers	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Chargers	50c	203.98$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.95	117	40.2%47 W · 70 L	-10.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Texans	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Texans	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-7.7wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfd65…fcfabacked Chargers	50c	195.44$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.72	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5e…7672backed Texans	52c	169.5$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Texans	52c	138.76$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.12	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Chargers	48c	136.2$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.38	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42ab…dd1abacked Chargers	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Chargers	49c	110.3$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.56	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Texans	49c	107$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.57	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Chargers	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda95…289fbacked Chargers	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Texans	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	169	46.7%79 W · 90 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Texans	48c	78.67$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	206	50.5%104 W · 102 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Texans	51c	78.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	110	54.5%60 W · 50 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x022a…df5ebacked Texans	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	188	43.1%81 W · 107 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f8…79a8backed Texans	52c	71.34$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.29	102	56.9%58 W · 44 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1900…e0a8backed Texans	52c	67.31$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf492…29c2backed Texans	52c	66.28$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.86	102	52.9%54 W · 48 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Chargers	49c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	96	51%49 W · 47 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…e568backed Texans	52c	53.85$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Texans	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	72	59.7%43 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Chargers	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Chargers	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	66	51.5%34 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x829b…0473backed Chargers	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60e5…a260backed Chargers	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	60cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed21…a2a1backed Chargers	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	61	65.6%40 W · 21 L	+6.8wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5db5…47efbacked Texans	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Chargers	49c	49.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Chargers	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	310	32.6%101 W · 209 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…bebdbacked Chargers	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed Texans	52c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	92	51.1%47 W · 45 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9e…40a5backed Chargers	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	101	74.3%75 W · 26 L	+10.9wins	+0.11per pick	63cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x715c…78c0backed Chargers	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x034c…b587backed Texans	50c	37.78$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.89	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd556…1a3bbacked Chargers	51c	37.39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Chargers	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Texans	51c	24.08$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.8	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-5.2wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x394d…6d80backed Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66ca…36f7backed Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x100a…cb02backed Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b29…47b2backed Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38d7…43b2backed Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80ae…7269backed Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8610…fa01backed Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cd2…716abacked Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe959…578bbacked Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb1…1129backed Chargers	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c82…c8ccbacked Chargers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Chargers (-1.5)this page
1H Spread: Chargers (-0.5)Texans won
Omarion Hampton: Anytime TouchdownYes won
Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Texans won
Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
Spread: Texans (-4.5)Chargers won
Spread: Texans (-6.5)Chargers won
Spread: Texans (-7.5)Chargers won
Spread: Texans (-9.5)Chargers won
Texans vs. ChargersTexans won
Texans vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineTexans won
Texans vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 34.5Over won
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 36.5Under won
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 37.5Under won
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5Under won
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5Under won
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5Under won
Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Chargers (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event