TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mexican Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Sho Shimabukuro

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shimabukuroof Mannarino, Shimabukuro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x046c…2a9cbacked Mannarino70c14,495$10,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,07535247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Shimabukuro48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9943051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Mannarino26c9,339$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4472,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Shimabukuro37c8,482$3,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,317.541,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Mannarino73c5,467$3,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,990.5857249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mannarino6c5,080$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.922,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Shimabukuro61c4,445$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.196,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Shimabukuro48c4,363$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.51872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2073…385bbacked Mannarino38c3,635$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.098042.5%34 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Shimabukuro38c3,421$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.7420847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Mannarino52c3,331$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.1226545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Mannarino56c2,773$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.421,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Mannarino44c2,315$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.613,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Mannarino52c1,896$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.83537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Shimabukuro49c1,719$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.692,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shimabukuro30c1,590$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.136,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Shimabukuro46c1,431$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.471,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Shimabukuro44c1,396$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.4124448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Shimabukuro46c1,198$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.876146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Shimabukuro46c1,193$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.6498240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked Shimabukuro51c1,177$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.775451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Mannarino59c1,103$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.347552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mannarino57c1,084$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.941,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Mannarino50c1,076$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.721,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mannarino50c1,024$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5152,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Shimabukuro49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.3920542.4%87 W · 118 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Mannarino49c970$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.7499044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Mannarino50c909$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.6297046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a78…1e03backed Shimabukuro71c850.14$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9416…98cfbacked Shimabukuro48c800$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41614536.6%53 W · 92 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shimabukuro36c786.36$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.737,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Mannarino62c750.08$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4646160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Mannarino53c690.09$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.6515244.1%67 W · 85 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mannarino55c686.24$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.4376140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Mannarino39c643.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.4446030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Mannarino62c642$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.044045%18 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Shimabukuro48c627.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.48143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf337…609abacked Mannarino22c561.52$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.269016.7%15 W · 75 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Shimabukuro48c555.4$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.594,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked Mannarino56c540$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.48555.3%47 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Mannarino44c520.82$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2312,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Shimabukuro49c512.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.3311353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Mannarino54c505$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6710835.2%38 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Mannarino40c496.22$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.146,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Mannarino53c471.35$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.626934.8%24 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Shimabukuro44c463$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.831,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Mannarino60c460$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27681047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b64…a351backed Mannarino52c423.08$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22035268.2%240 W · 112 L-0.5wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Mannarino54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21623454.7%128 W · 106 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Shimabukuro42c396.47$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.4316340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Mannarino62c385.94$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2831753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Mannarino66c378.79$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725d…e49abacked Mannarino53c377.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005048%24 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Shimabukuro42c364.06$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8746649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Mannarino55c359$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.451,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Mannarino52c351.26$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6643353.6%232 W · 201 L+32.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Shimabukuro41c349.43$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.1665849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Mannarino55c325.48$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6724454.9%134 W · 110 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d78…a4ccbacked Mannarino62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20033055.8%184 W · 146 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Shimabukuro47c307.13$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.781,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa8…2bd9backed Mannarino62c301.38$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Shimabukuro61c287.18$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.682,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Mannarino54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15042042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mannarino55c270.4$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.527,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mannarino51c262.75$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Shimabukuro42c256.77$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1478152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Mannarino56c246.26$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.633241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2054…148fbacked Mannarino62c241.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.53650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Mannarino55c227.27$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12542046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Mannarino54c221.49$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12017754.8%97 W · 80 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Shimabukuro46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3914663%92 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Shimabukuro42c210.08$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8575262%466 W · 286 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Shimabukuro46c203$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6221338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Shimabukuro48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10447639.1%186 W · 290 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Mannarino55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11037444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Shimabukuro47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10628747.7%137 W · 150 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Mannarino51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031749.5%157 W · 160 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Shimabukuro42c193.27$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0953058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Mannarino52c188$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7648552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Mannarino54c186.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Shimabukuro46c184$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.361,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f95…b08bbacked Shimabukuro37c183.16$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3911045.5%50 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe289…c31abacked Mannarino55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked Shimabukuro42c178.57$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.575354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Mannarino55c177.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8924852%129 W · 119 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6041…3326backed Mannarino62c161$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.823458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Mannarino55c157.77$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.185450%27 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Shimabukuro69c155.5$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.172,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Shimabukuro47c154.12$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.681,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Shimabukuro42c147.81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7340744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe324…9189backed Mannarino62c138.71$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8620664.1%132 W · 74 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c9…247dbacked Shimabukuro47c127.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.661637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Shimabukuro40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe795…d019backed Mannarino52c125$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658850%44 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Mannarino33c124.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3310749.5%53 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed Mannarino60c118.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Shimabukuro42c117.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1520043.5%87 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d40…ef02backed Mannarino54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Shimabukuro42c109.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.524540%18 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Shimabukuro46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.750952.1%265 W · 244 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.