Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe763f7ccfa875b38e373c6bedb76d0319bea07c7882a26ee51efadf1dba78b05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, UCF Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked UCF Knights | 52c | 5,773$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002.22 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed UCF Knights | 51c | 4,321$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.33 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 3,406$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.19 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked UCF Knights | 50c | 1,840$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.71 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 1,596$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.9 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 1,138$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.91 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 632.68$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.23 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 629.63$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.63 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed UCF Knights | 48c | 626.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 565$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.52 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 560.38$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.98 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed UCF Knights | 50c | 384.16$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 380$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed UCF Knights | 53c | 190.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 149.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 84.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 70.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed UCF Knights | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed UCF Knights | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-13.5)this page
- UCF Knights vs. Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones won
- UCF Knights vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 156.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.