TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Kayla Day

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kayla Dayof Darja Semenistaja, Kayla Day
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,750
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,750 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd92…6b2abacked Darja Semenistaja51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,399.922321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Kayla Day48c15,563$7,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,085.9524448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Darja Semenistaja50c14,651$7,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,316.682759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Darja Semenistaja52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9843051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kayla Day49c8,582$4,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,412.6321338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Darja Semenistaja15c7,422$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.632,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Kayla Day49c6,788$3,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,469.8129146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Kayla Day50c6,449$3,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,236.7140744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Darja Semenistaja53c6,047$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.724350.2%122 W · 121 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Kayla Day48c4,839$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,492.151,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa9a4…0830backed Kayla Day50c4,673$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Darja Semenistaja51c4,388$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.461,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Darja Semenistaja30c4,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18022553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Kayla Day49c3,418$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.1831332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Kayla Day49c3,082$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.4616746.1%77 W · 90 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Kayla Day49c2,795$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.2138133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…2c4ebacked Kayla Day50c2,624$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.721266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1f…e2ffbacked Kayla Day50c2,175$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+53.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kayla Day49c1,968$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.571,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Darja Semenistaja53c1,891$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.183537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Darja Semenistaja51c1,878$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.581,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Darja Semenistaja52c1,757$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91023945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Darja Semenistaja23c1,737$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.941225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kayla Day75c1,694$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.112,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kayla Day49c1,633$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.6576140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Darja Semenistaja52c1,540$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.84040%16 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x61e5…2548backed Darja Semenistaja51c1,460$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Kayla Day50c1,391$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.271,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kayla Day73c1,270$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.526,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6480…fb82backed Darja Semenistaja19c1,253$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Kayla Day49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.21,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db1…d726backed Darja Semenistaja16c1,018$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16711832.2%38 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed Kayla Day80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Kayla Day50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Kayla Day51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.393658.3%21 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Darja Semenistaja52c961.53$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020542.4%87 W · 118 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x522a…0076backed Darja Semenistaja53c946.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Kayla Day51c888$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.1295050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf4…ed22backed Kayla Day47c847.43$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.1418447.3%87 W · 97 L+16.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Kayla Day46c844.22$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.475748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Kayla Day78c817.09$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7647252.1%246 W · 226 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Kayla Day50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40016743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9416…98cfbacked Darja Semenistaja52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41614536.6%53 W · 92 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Darja Semenistaja51c784.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025544.7%114 W · 141 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44e5…3c33backed Kayla Day50c684$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3421963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kayla Day47c642.32$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.431,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Kayla Day69c626.33$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.331,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Darja Semenistaja47c583.08$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27527935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Kayla Day49c569.59$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.4922747.6%108 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Kayla Day50c520.83$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.312,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Kayla Day80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10060055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Kayla Day50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25046553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Darja Semenistaja52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606639.4%26 W · 40 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kayla Day64c480.12$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.633,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Kayla Day47c457.17$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.337230.4%113 W · 259 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b00…03a9backed Darja Semenistaja11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Kayla Day50c432$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2169949.5%49 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Kayla Day50c400.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.57949.4%39 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kayla Day47c376$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.547,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Darja Semenistaja25c369.05$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.277,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Darja Semenistaja21c368.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.116,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x903f…de5fbacked Kayla Day53c361.06$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0616830.4%51 W · 117 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Darja Semenistaja22c359.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1712032.5%39 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Kayla Day50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15043448.4%210 W · 224 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…5c9fbacked Darja Semenistaja50c299.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9915848.7%77 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Kayla Day50c297.68$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6811353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Kayla Day52c288.47$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4798240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Kayla Day49c270.1$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7575262%466 W · 286 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Kayla Day48c269.55$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.564,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ca…7502backed Darja Semenistaja51c265.2$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f4…4c57backed Kayla Day50c265$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Darja Semenistaja23c261$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.742,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Kayla Day66c240.83$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.742,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Darja Semenistaja51c237$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.871,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ce…f117backed Kayla Day50c206$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4cc…ce46backed Darja Semenistaja51c206$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Darja Semenistaja52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10447639.1%186 W · 290 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…e65abacked Darja Semenistaja52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Kayla Day51c196.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.311,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Kayla Day49c196.06$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9942046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kayla Day75c188.73$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4581349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Kayla Day80c187.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.584963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Kayla Day49c181.8$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7286835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Darja Semenistaja20c174.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3567836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Darja Semenistaja45c173.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.281,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Darja Semenistaja33c169.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.357521.3%16 W · 59 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-62.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Darja Semenistaja24c167$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7437342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf97…e6e6backed Kayla Day50c167$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4597…1bd7backed Kayla Day80c166.25$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2510967.9%74 W · 35 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Darja Semenistaja51c163$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1318548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Kayla Day49c155$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0520043.5%87 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Kayla Day49c146.94$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.944540%18 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc62…b7ddbacked Kayla Day73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Kayla Day50c136$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6885748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Kayla Day49c127.36$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0670148.2%338 W · 363 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbe…993abacked Kayla Day80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+83%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kayla Day55c121.6$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.074,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Kayla Day47c120$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.629461.9%182 W · 112 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Kayla Day49c116.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6419338.9%75 W · 118 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+109.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Kayla Day48c111.89$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.511,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.