TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebe0…2839backed Under54c3,855$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15a8…af0fbacked Over46c3,789$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c3,758$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.939,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aed…2a4cbacked Over46c3,587$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf82e…4802backed Over46c3,500$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb240…f55ebacked Under54c3,500$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda4…6928backed Under54c3,232$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Under52c3,188$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5302548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82d…df2abacked Under54c2,855$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd45e…1e76backed Over46c2,566$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c4d…77dabacked Under54c2,131$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.263100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6911…c2febacked Over46c2,123$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09de…4b9abacked Under54c2,055$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.3475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d35…600abacked Over46c2,052$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.92450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6bd…ca52backed Under54c2,041$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda1a…68dbbacked Over46c2,041$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e9…b921backed Under54c2,036$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01d9…ef05backed Over46c2,036$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3772…24edbacked Over46c2,034$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b5…b9e9backed Under54c2,033$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8007…0669backed Over46c2,022$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.1230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8a…1fcabacked Under54c2,012$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over10c1,748$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.191,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Under56c1,689$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.7521250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over44c1,231$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.484,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Over43c880$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.122138%84 W · 137 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over59c523.52$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over54c475.73$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.13,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over42c474.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over41c435.5$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0320638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under44c347.93$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.72,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Under62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5890957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Over48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15043244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd4…35b5backed Over5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14270%0 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Over23c295.84$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.631144.4%138 W · 173 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e4b…1ff9backed Over47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016347.2%77 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9041052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Under78c198$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.814562.2%28 W · 17 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+55.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over45c165.02$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.483,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over42c156.05$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.454,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under57c144$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.482,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4542551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Under55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4516052.5%84 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5548956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4541354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.143246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under53c95.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.743,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x457f…cf1dbacked Under55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9110659.4%63 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over44c56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.643,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x440a…9599backed Under55c40.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.048441.7%35 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over38c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.021,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Under53c28.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3741553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under68c27.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9537959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under54c27.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.72,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Under55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2733552.8%177 W · 158 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b98…e5d1backed Under58c26.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.018158%47 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad5…7492backed Under79c25.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.451566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over47c24.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.718150.3%91 W · 90 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Under55c21.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8221051.4%108 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.