TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Kings (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Kings, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Kings47c11,516$5,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,412.273534.3%12 W · 23 L-6.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards52c6,231$3,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.139,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings46c5,319$2,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.044,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Kings46c5,220$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.21,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Kings46c4,701$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.41,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7e…7192backed Kings50c4,450$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5abb…1711backed Wizards50c4,430$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…59f7backed Wizards50c4,400$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Kings49c4,390$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.0619653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd158…cb00backed Wizards50c4,330$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x214a…5d3abacked Kings50c4,210$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2807…9951backed Kings50c4,200$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6f…fb60backed Kings50c4,158$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Kings51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…3832backed Wizards50c3,911$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf09…7ee4backed Wizards50c3,881$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5efa…d2bdbacked Kings50c3,856$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a5f…1c2abacked Kings50c3,850$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad78…1cbbbacked Wizards50c3,850$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,925366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe09…cf21backed Wizards50c3,788$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8943100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards53c3,773$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.311,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8072…4524backed Kings50c3,710$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick51cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc15…b1c0backed Kings50c3,637$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards54c3,596$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.762,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadc2…a8e1backed Wizards50c3,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7502100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Wizards55c3,460$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.871,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c2…76b4backed Kings50c3,456$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4587…206bbacked Kings50c3,440$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba5c…0368backed Kings50c3,394$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fbd…4118backed Wizards50c3,385$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3618…ebb7backed Kings50c3,350$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,67520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b03…7618backed Wizards50c3,310$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf035…02e3backed Wizards50c3,250$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e7…2cb2backed Wizards50c3,250$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6275…6814backed Wizards50c3,222$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6112100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x328e…848fbacked Wizards50c3,222$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08f6…48ffbacked Kings50c3,211$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c41…32a0backed Kings50c3,050$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf45b…4997backed Wizards50c3,020$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827c…43a1backed Wizards50c3,010$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x969a…6ec5backed Kings50c2,783$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c00…eb19backed Kings50c2,605$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe02e…1318backed Wizards50c2,550$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fd…0e2dbacked Kings50c2,235$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb383…f189backed Kings52c2,208$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.01425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards51c1,954$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.134,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee80…de57backed Kings50c1,944$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cf…004dbacked Kings50c1,544$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.156947.8%33 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Wizards50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75011753%62 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards54c1,483$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.533,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Wizards52c1,396$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67014358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Wizards54c1,390$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.9421250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wizards55c1,377$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.392,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8477…7587backed Wizards50c1,230$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Kings49c1,097$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.73511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards51c1,097$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.74,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Wizards52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Wizards51c863.88$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.319359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings45c771.81$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.322,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Wizards55c752.18$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.2820638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kings45c688.45$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.86,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Kings50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Wizards55c540$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24310251%52 W · 50 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Wizards51c535.1$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kings43c531$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.533,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa146…717cbacked Kings48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-74.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2153,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Wizards50c497.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.8430452.6%160 W · 144 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Wizards54c486.51$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7980653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x409c…d891backed Kings34c409.44$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Kings51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Kings46c365$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.940146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Wizards51c313.73$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7323847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards52c300$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.293,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Wizards67c297.36$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.61,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Wizards50c233.23$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6212547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Wizards51c223$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.271,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Kings48c219.11$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.171,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Kings47c200.7$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3343244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Wizards49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10261747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Wizards50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Kings50c192$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9619647.4%93 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Wizards51c170.81$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.739842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Wizards52c153.65$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7534047.1%160 W · 180 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Wizards50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7023143.3%100 W · 131 L-13.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Wizards50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6024250.8%123 W · 119 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Wizards52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3836247.5%172 W · 190 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards54c110$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.451651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Wizards70c108.37$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.512,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Kings35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3514127.7%39 W · 102 L-16.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x39ca…7f97backed Kings50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Kings50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Kings41c99.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8939736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Wizards56c93.52$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1510357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Wizards52c82.27$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4922752%118 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Kings49c81.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.11,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8b…bff8backed Wizards53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.99958.6%58 W · 41 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Kings45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.580744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Wizards55c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.549351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards52c67.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.582,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.