TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,296 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead0…f3babacked Under53c9,990$5,295 inWon+$4,695.281,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c9,289$4,850 inWon+$4,439.739,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Over47c7,640$3,591 inLost-$3,590.811653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over48c7,469$3,582 inLost-$3,582.4324744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Under53c5,000$2,650 inWon+$2,35077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa177…6e84backed Over47c4,255$2,000 inLost-$2,0006753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over47c3,650$1,716 inLost-$1,715.52,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Over49c3,000$1,470 inLost-$1,47037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Under52c2,445$1,271 inWon+$1,173.5521250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under51c2,264$1,158 inWon+$1,105.781,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over48c1,017$488 inLost-$488.114,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over48c937.5$450 inLost-$4502,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over47c826$388 inLost-$388.221,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under53c799.97$420 inWon+$379.993,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Over48c780$373 inLost-$373.322138%84 W · 137 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over52c674$350 inLost-$350.4831354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca0f…780bbacked Over47c648.32$305 inLost-$304.712948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under53c487.31$258 inWon+$229.0380653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under53c397.43$211 inWon+$186.7976249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Over48c312.5$150 inLost-$15043244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b7…bfe9backed Over47c212.77$100 inLost-$1002268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Over48c208.33$100 inLost-$10017035.9%61 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under53c200$106 inWon+$9495047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Over52c192.31$100 inLost-$10033246.1%153 W · 179 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2984…57c8backed Under54c185.19$100 inWon+$85.195851.7%30 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1a…68d8backed Under54c185.19$100 inWon+$85.1914652.1%76 W · 70 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea52…b082backed Over52c115.38$60 inLost-$601947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c108.82$52 inLost-$52.143,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over55c89.09$49 inLost-$4945651.1%233 W · 223 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under45c89.09$40 inWon+$493,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Over47c73$34 inLost-$34.3131155%171 W · 140 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over47c54.75$26 inLost-$25.731,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over47c50.77$24 inLost-$23.8687453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over47c50$24 inLost-$23.55,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.2243647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over48c34.43$16 inLost-$16.424,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6994…eed0backed Over48c24.75$12 inLost-$11.884037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under67c24$16 inWon+$7.958,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$1036350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.