MLB · resolved market
Will Canada win Pool A at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9839410be5ed4aa22b7e32fec4c41aaa8840edcfefd5f142bcdf53b66f5942db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,746 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,682$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Yes | 59c | 1,343$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.61 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 42c | 507$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…ccbdbacked Yes | 30c | 219.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 69c | 211.55$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 60c | 191$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 32c | 120.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 33c | 108$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed No | 72c | 100.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…9316backed Yes | 30c | 98.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 78c | 53.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 67c | 48.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 59c | 22.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canada win Pool A at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?this page
- Will Cuba win Pool A at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Puerto Rico win Pool A at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.