Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a68b4485cae452f2aab01b0066a81487fd7d669e5349f7b8c988f2308d17fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,997 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 11c | 22,564$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.54 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 4,945$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.89 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 10c | 3,995$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.12 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 12c | 1,669$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 10c | 1,614$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.01 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 12c | 1,197$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Under | 15c | 533.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 11c | 518.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 9c | 297.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 14c | 251.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…c1c6backed Under | 13c | 220.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 8c | 165.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f196backed Under | 21c | 156.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a34…d8f3backed Over | 79c | 156.74$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 12c | 128.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 10c | 114.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Under | 10c | 111.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Under | 11c | 103.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c14…2f42backed Under | 11c | 93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 17c | 69.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Over | 80c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.