TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, Atalanta BC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$470,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,931 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Atalanta BC67c199,999$133,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,299.011478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+44.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked FC Bayern München34c83,777$28,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,318.742360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern München34c63,654$21,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,781.41,95944.1%863 W · 1,096 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed FC Bayern München34c46,218$15,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,503.693751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Atalanta BC66c40,573$26,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,775.836657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked FC Bayern München33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,05028543.9%125 W · 160 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Atalanta BC65c10,836$7,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,012.9258248.8%284 W · 298 L+2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed FC Bayern München34c8,681$2,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,708.9538748.3%187 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Atalanta BC65c6,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.954247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed FC Bayern München34c5,259$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,470.821553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed FC Bayern München33c4,545$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.153839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked FC Bayern München33c4,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,68013548.9%66 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbb…c561backed FC Bayern München34c3,529$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.411428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed FC Bayern München34c2,941$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.182450%12 W · 12 L+6.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+96.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed FC Bayern München35c2,799$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.375248.1%25 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Atalanta BC67c2,567$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.895757.9%33 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Atalanta BC65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.9919755.3%109 W · 88 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed FC Bayern München34c1,863$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.8829350.5%148 W · 145 L+13.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed FC Bayern München35c1,523$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.091450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked FC Bayern München35c1,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.9812956.6%73 W · 56 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked FC Bayern München33c1,352$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.9216144.1%71 W · 90 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Atalanta BC12c1,248$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.225335.8%19 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Atalanta BC63c1,242$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.9826047.7%124 W · 136 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Bayern München65c1,096$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.541,48740.3%599 W · 888 L-7.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7d37…15abbacked FC Bayern München59c1,093$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed FC Bayern München34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6602755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked FC Bayern München35c990.64$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked FC Bayern München34c888.82$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.623354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7164…7ff7backed FC Bayern München36c822.22$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.22520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked FC Bayern München58c776.08$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.0822054.1%119 W · 101 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked Atalanta BC42c775.57$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.742147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked FC Bayern München33c600$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40213349.6%66 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked Atalanta BC60c597.21$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.5218250.5%92 W · 90 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed FC Bayern München39c520$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.24942.9%21 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+73.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed FC Bayern München36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3208043.8%35 W · 45 L+11.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+60.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Atalanta BC65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3257146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed FC Bayern München34c464.94$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.9220643.2%89 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc260…68dfbacked FC Bayern München33c443.33$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+72.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71da…bc9ebacked Atalanta BC64c406.37$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b0d…45bfbacked FC Bayern München37c335.36$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.36837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Atalanta BC63c316.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.724047.1%113 W · 127 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed FC Bayern München33c314.15$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4413246.2%61 W · 71 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Atalanta BC64c312.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95bb…213abacked FC Bayern München40c306.78$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked FC Bayern München33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.033844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed FC Bayern München33c301.18$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed FC Bayern München34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19838356.7%217 W · 166 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19220639.3%81 W · 125 L+25.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Atalanta BC61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18322647.3%107 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked FC Bayern München34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19844955.7%250 W · 199 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed FC Bayern München35c286.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1113534.8%47 W · 88 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed FC Bayern München35c286.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.053751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed FC Bayern München35c285.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8513134.4%45 W · 86 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed FC Bayern München39c281$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.1212344.7%55 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed FC Bayern München35c279.29$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.546331.7%20 W · 43 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked FC Bayern München33c272.37$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4113453%71 W · 63 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed FC Bayern München37c270.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.355541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed FC Bayern München37c270$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.11346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed FC Bayern München34c250$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16516753.3%89 W · 78 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Atalanta BC66c249.37$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.074427.3%12 W · 32 L-7.3wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed FC Bayern München38c248.98$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.383630.6%11 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed FC Bayern München35c236.19$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.086741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed FC Bayern München34c230$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.817855.6%99 W · 79 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Atalanta BC61c229.36$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.912540%10 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked FC Bayern München37c216.2$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2110647.2%50 W · 56 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c88…5463backed FC Bayern München39c196.49$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.861526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-46.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14b2…013fbacked FC Bayern München41c196.39$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.455050%25 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed FC Bayern München34c180$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.810650.9%54 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed FC Bayern München34c180$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.813552.6%71 W · 64 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5d…2668backed FC Bayern München59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.496435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…8401backed FC Bayern München35c154.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+188.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ab…dea1backed FC Bayern München36c151$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed FC Bayern München34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9946956.5%265 W · 204 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec46…072dbacked FC Bayern München35c150$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.583948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed FC Bayern München59c140.65$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.973450%17 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed FC Bayern München36c139.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.055349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Bayern München33c137.49$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1259441.8%248 W · 346 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked FC Bayern München35c137$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1613245.5%60 W · 72 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb262…8aebbacked FC Bayern München35c131$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Atalanta BC63c130.24$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5610164.4%65 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed FC Bayern München55c129.71$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9121460.7%130 W · 84 L+21.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München34c125.68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8523637.3%88 W · 148 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.210753.3%57 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.211548.7%56 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.214352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.210949.5%54 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.211449.1%56 W · 58 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.215651.3%80 W · 76 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.212652.4%66 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.213751.8%71 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.216251.2%83 W · 79 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.211350.4%57 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed FC Bayern München34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed FC Bayern München34c117.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.655928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked FC Bayern München35c115.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.132955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed FC Bayern München36c110$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.43016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Atalanta BC64c109.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707051.4%36 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked FC Bayern München37c108.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.111241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick22cpaid+58.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85ab…4dc5backed FC Bayern München37c108.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.111643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked FC Bayern München35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653447.1%16 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.