Champions League · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd915fa84580bb2b3f09e8a68028ec8b3ba20d341a33ff3e173c70aa4e6a9893d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, Atalanta BC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,062 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Bayern München | 78c | 2,554$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.51 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed FC Bayern München | 18c | 1,468$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked FC Bayern München | 18c | 1,239$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.65 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked FC Bayern München | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.12 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed FC Bayern München | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked FC Bayern München | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +7.7wins | +0.35per pick | 38cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed FC Bayern München | 18c | 999.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.96 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Atalanta BC | 41c | 827.53$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.88 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed FC Bayern München | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed FC Bayern München | 19c | 535.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.9 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed FC Bayern München | 19c | 407$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.9 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Atalanta BC | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FC Bayern München | 19c | 361.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.13 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed FC Bayern München | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Atalanta BC | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked FC Bayern München | 34c | 149.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed FC Bayern München | 19c | 133.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed FC Bayern München | 23c | 132.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed FC Bayern München | 18c | 110.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Atalanta BC | 24c | 106.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed FC Bayern München | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked FC Bayern München | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…ac78backed FC Bayern München | 17c | 96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +478.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Bayern München | 32c | 75.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed FC Bayern München | 62c | 72.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed FC Bayern München | 39c | 64.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Atalanta BC | 22c | 52.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…26f2backed Atalanta BC | 37c | 50.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed FC Bayern München | 36c | 48.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Atalanta BC | 79c | 40.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Atalanta BC | 53c | 36.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked FC Bayern München | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Atalanta BC | 36c | 30.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…7759backed Atalanta BC | 68c | 27.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…4786backed FC Bayern München | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2b…ec21backed FC Bayern München | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked FC Bayern München | 55c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked FC Bayern München | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Atalanta BC | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.