Tennis · resolved market
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x461b9dad129a750eaf53485fde060733dad31463f9cf2441b6ec3294b7e67f32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 7,500$3,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,124.99 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 4,899$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,694.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under 2.5 | 1c | 3,749$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 1,959$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.45 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 1,717$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.2 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 1,226$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.92 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Under 2.5 | 6c | 925.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 667$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.52 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 599.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.48 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 525.05$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.91 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under 2.5 | 42c | 316.72$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 309$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.95 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 37c | 307.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 232.53$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.54 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…3152backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 218.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 211.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 200.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over 2.5 | 65c | 199.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee59backed Over 2.5 | 62c | 190.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over 2.5 | 52c | 189.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over 2.5 | 59c | 170.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Under 2.5 | 38c | 143.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 125.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…263bbacked Over 2.5 | 63c | 111.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…213abacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Under 2.5 | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 352 | 48.6%171 W · 181 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Over 2.5 | 66c | 91.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 81.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Over 2.5 | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Over 2.5 | 67c | 74.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under 2.5 | 34c | 71.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 58.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…832dbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Under 2.5 | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…51b9backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…40bfbacked Over 2.5 | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under 2.5 | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 38.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under 2.5 | 42c | 36.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…bd88backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 2.5 | 41c | 32.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…83b8backed Over 2.5 | 76c | 30.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…3954backed Over 2.5 | 58c | 25.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 24.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…191dbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 24.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa695…c8a4backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c07…7a3ebacked Over 2.5 | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs RybakinaRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.