Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d7d98c8018f275f9a74d5faf3be3788e450216404f9bebe486be26005a16e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Sabalenka, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Rybakina | 47c | 3,733$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.31 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Rybakina | 80c | 2,000$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.95 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Sabalenka | 20c | 1,822$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.35 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Sabalenka | 21c | 1,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sabalenka | 55c | 955$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.25 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Sabalenka | 60c | 837.42$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 620 | 61.9%384 W · 236 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Rybakina | 80c | 700$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Sabalenka | 50c | 552.34$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.65 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sabalenka | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54eb…aafabacked Sabalenka | 10c | 494.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Sabalenka | 59c | 395.72$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rybakina | 55c | 314.43$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x621c…1192backed Sabalenka | 20c | 252.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 25cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Sabalenka | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sabalenka | 55c | 211.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Rybakina | 41c | 185$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Sabalenka | 55c | 181.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Sabalenka | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…3640backed Sabalenka | 60c | 166.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…0ebebacked Sabalenka | 27c | 163.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Rybakina | 76c | 120.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee59backed Rybakina | 45c | 120.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Sabalenka | 61c | 115.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…4275backed Sabalenka | 26c | 105.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Sabalenka | 58c | 100.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…40bfbacked Rybakina | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Sabalenka | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sabalenka | 25c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rybakina | 52c | 79.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Rybakina | 79c | 66.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…263bbacked Rybakina | 72c | 60.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…5d57backed Sabalenka | 19c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rybakina | 41c | 53.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…178abacked Sabalenka | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9b…7605backed Sabalenka | 60c | 50.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Rybakina | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5366…73aabacked Sabalenka | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…832dbacked Sabalenka | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Sabalenka | 60c | 41.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…b854backed Rybakina | 45c | 33.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rybakina | 58c | 32.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Rybakina | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Sabalenka | 33c | 31.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f4…e88fbacked Rybakina | 79c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…0e1cbacked Rybakina | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…9613backed Sabalenka | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed Sabalenka | 58c | 19.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Rybakina | 80c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Rybakinathis page
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.