Tennis · resolved market
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d54cba08ac0e43e0fbe00a54dc14672c3c6d902ddafc95ce1aa237aceb7984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe66e…abddbacked Under | 48c | 4,079$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.92 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Over | 52c | 4,070$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…a146backed Over | 53c | 1,886$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…d3ebbacked Under | 47c | 1,886$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 1,858$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.88 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 55c | 1,808$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.68 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Over | 55c | 364.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.18 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 275$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 55c | 273.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 236.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Under | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Under | 47c | 53.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 50c | 53.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 48c | 34.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 52c | 33.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…138cbacked Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 53c | 23.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b9…acf9backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs RybakinaRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.