Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b3b5976a2ff2ed0e50bb047c49d92841a46975601eedc52ec16f9369a915fb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Sabalenka, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sabalenka | 0c | 4,716$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Rybakina | 64c | 3,792$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.38 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f58…6f3cbacked Sabalenka | 49c | 3,317$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…0359backed Sabalenka | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Sabalenka | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rybakina | 61c | 1,587$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.92 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rybakina | 51c | 1,493$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.62 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Sabalenka | 35c | 1,462$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.44 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Sabalenka | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 61c | 1,341$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.54 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc198…6d2cbacked Rybakina | 66c | 1,332$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +253.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Sabalenka | 38c | 1,322$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…bbb6backed Sabalenka | 39c | 1,277$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Rybakina | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rybakina | 64c | 1,092$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.12 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Sabalenka | 38c | 1,042$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Sabalenka | 34c | 900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…9b8cbacked Rybakina | 64c | 653.79$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.79 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Rybakina | 62c | 610.38$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Sabalenka | 34c | 610.15$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.45 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Sabalenka | 23c | 559.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Sabalenka | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Sabalenka | 34c | 458.94$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.85 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Rybakina | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54eb…aafabacked Sabalenka | 13c | 348.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rybakina | 63c | 320$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Rybakina | 66c | 320$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…ab0fbacked Sabalenka | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Sabalenka | 40c | 242.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Rybakina | 63c | 237.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…2d72backed Sabalenka | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Rybakina | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Sabalenka | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Rybakina | 71c | 190.89$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Sabalenka | 36c | 184$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Sabalenka | 36c | 170.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Rybakina | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Rybakina | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Sabalenka | 40c | 133.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Sabalenka | 18c | 128.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Sabalenka | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…82b3backed Sabalenka | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…334dbacked Sabalenka | 35c | 114.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Rybakina | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Rybakina | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Sabalenka | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Sabalenka | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Sabalenka | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 328 | 37.5%123 W · 205 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Rybakina | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Rybakina | 58c | 63.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Rybakina | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Rybakina | 68c | 58.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sabalenka | 35c | 56.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Sabalenka | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…3ad4backed Sabalenka | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bf…231fbacked Sabalenka | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Rybakina | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…6f5dbacked Sabalenka | 40c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca17…9ca6backed Rybakina | 64c | 48.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Rybakina | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rybakina | 57c | 40.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sabalenka | 39c | 37.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Sabalenka | 36c | 36.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…6541backed Rybakina | 64c | 34.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Rybakina | 65c | 33.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Sabalenka | 35c | 33.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…49dabacked Sabalenka | 37c | 33.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Rybakina | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Sabalenka | 35c | 31.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Rybakina | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 165 | 58.8%97 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rybakina | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…b2d1backed Rybakina | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)this page
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs RybakinaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.