TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Alcaraz, Minaur
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,787,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,671,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,787,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b5c…126ebacked Minaur5c134,525$6,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,263.2780938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Minaur15c100,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.9952844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Minaur10c82,405$7,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,983.371,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Minaur14c77,777$10,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,888.7610541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Minaur15c64,918$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Minaur15c58,565$9,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,013.0276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Minaur17c53,795$9,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,207.9414450.7%73 W · 71 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Minaur3c51,242$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.9223731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Minaur16c40,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40015832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Minaur14c40,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.981625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Minaur15c37,120$5,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,450.3922344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x048b…09efbacked Minaur12c35,407$4,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,117.611020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid+66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a35…2fadbacked Minaur15c30,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Minaur15c26,640$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996.021540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Minaur15c25,914$3,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,906.013046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c37…9b8cbacked Minaur0c25,434$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.966050%30 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x779a…ca34backed Minaur15c25,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7504060%24 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Minaur16c23,982$3,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,753.952356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Minaur0c22,149$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.512033.3%40 W · 80 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Minaur16c20,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.985655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Minaur16c18,824$3,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.2125428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x681d…3fa1backed Minaur1c16,882$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.281618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e0…732cbacked Minaur4c16,663$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Minaur15c14,522$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.2557939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c9…e904backed Minaur11c13,391$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.292334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Minaur16c12,500$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Minaur18c12,130$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.463935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Minaur16c11,725$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.984944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Minaur4c11,616$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.768231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Minaur19c11,595$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.7131332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Minaur16c11,576$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.812,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minaur15c11,404$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.112,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5836…27bdbacked Minaur3c10,250$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.5147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-85.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Minaur15c9,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42528141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Minaur15c8,673$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.17,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Minaur9c6,677$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.7614243%61 W · 81 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Alcaraz80c6,500$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3004560%27 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Minaur17c6,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9908640.7%35 W · 51 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Minaur16c6,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur18c5,330$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.257,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Minaur11c5,203$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.542,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed Minaur16c5,011$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.7710640.6%43 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Alcaraz80c5,011$4,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0034148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Minaur12c5,000$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.022,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Minaur14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed Minaur16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Minaur15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9916825%42 W · 126 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Minaur15c4,923$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.091526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Minaur16c4,833$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75525722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Minaur1c3,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.682,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Minaur15c3,250$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.0511,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Minaur16c3,183$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.358429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Alcaraz80c3,155$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.9515244.1%67 W · 85 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Minaur7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac53…6133backed Minaur17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.985030%15 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Minaur17c2,618$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4457150.7%36 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Minaur16c2,581$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Minaur16c2,537$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.451,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…5bc2backed Minaur9c2,400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164245.2%19 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Minaur17c2,356$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.56147.5%29 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Minaur16c2,186$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.941,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked Minaur18c2,165$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.7312439.5%49 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Minaur13c2,050$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.856,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Minaur18c1,778$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Minaur14c1,700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24527944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Minaur16c1,600$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2073…385bbacked Minaur4c1,590$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688042.5%34 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Minaur16c1,563$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25054138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Minaur16c1,443$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.7712631%39 W · 87 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Minaur17c1,295$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.069643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Minaur15c1,285$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4420043.5%87 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6565…0359backed Minaur16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Minaur16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012627.8%35 W · 91 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Minaur16c1,218$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8821338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Minaur2c1,108$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.053,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Minaur3c1,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812322%27 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Minaur15c1,100$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16527132.1%87 W · 184 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Minaur12c1,084$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.253138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Minaur17c1,059$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.111428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Minaur16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1609134.1%31 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c36…36a0backed Minaur9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-62.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Minaur17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf334…0606backed Minaur13c1,000$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1334214.3%6 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Minaur16c987.5$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15839431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Minaur18c916.94$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0516340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Minaur19c900$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16942141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Minaur15c894.04$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1141060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a9…df70backed Minaur19c873.68$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Minaur17c867.31$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4453058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35dc…0083backed Minaur5c844.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.621323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-58.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b4…e428backed Minaur16c835.31$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Minaur13c780$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10318551.4%95 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Minaur7c774$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3118247.3%86 W · 96 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x022b…b28cbacked Minaur17c770$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a31…02a2backed Alcaraz80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-58.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fa5…4f56backed Minaur20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Minaur15c750$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1163823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f8c…2157backed Minaur21c731.69$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fd…be65backed Minaur5c699.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x051f…66b0backed Minaur15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.