Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11071bf034070f5d7ad2b5bcc05539c29c2f721e1285c58139a3774183feea1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Minaur | 28c | 1,771$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.35 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…e644backed Alcaraz | 72c | 1,185$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.43 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur | 29c | 859.15$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.99 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Alcaraz | 71c | 800.93$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.74 | 386 | 52.3%202 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Minaur | 30c | 799.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Alcaraz | 68c | 564.07$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.39 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Alcaraz | 70c | 525.16$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.16 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Minaur | 29c | 508.69$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Minaur | 30c | 466.92$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.48 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Minaur | 32c | 460$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Alcaraz | 71c | 421.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Alcaraz | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Alcaraz | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…eed9backed Alcaraz | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Minaur | 31c | 161.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Minaur | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Alcaraz | 72c | 145.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15e…8cacbacked Alcaraz | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 213 | 61.5%131 W · 82 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Alcaraz | 78c | 128.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed Minaur | 38c | 123.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 271 | 47.2%128 W · 143 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Minaur | 29c | 123$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Minaur | 26c | 121.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0406…c5b3backed Alcaraz | 72c | 117$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Alcaraz | 72c | 80.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Alcaraz | 70c | 71.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 165 | 58.8%97 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…6d35backed Alcaraz | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Alcaraz | 71c | 70.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…09d5backed Alcaraz | 71c | 62.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…21b7backed Alcaraz | 67c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Minaur | 34c | 37.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…8cccbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…3bfdbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 34.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Alcaraz | 70c | 33.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Alcaraz | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…beb7backed Alcaraz | 70c | 29.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…66f3backed Alcaraz | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…24bebacked Alcaraz | 70c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…3428backed Alcaraz | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de MinaurAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MinaurAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.