Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66d8b07cba035f52d6800f16381c693a211dc382f830cb5280757eba93841110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Alcaraz | 75c | 2,258$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.73 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…4032backed Alcaraz | 74c | 1,577$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.02 | 101 | 62.4%63 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Minaur | 7c | 1,428$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 83 | 13.3%11 W · 72 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur | 26c | 1,100$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.43 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Minaur | 4c | 1,096$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Minaur | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Alcaraz | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Minaur | 27c | 707.81$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.13 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minaur | 7c | 642.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Alcaraz | 77c | 629$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Minaur | 6c | 584.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…6e09backed Alcaraz | 65c | 516.82$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.89 | 489 | 41.1%201 W · 288 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Minaur | 26c | 313.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…0083backed Minaur | 26c | 299.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minaur | 35c | 287.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…36a0backed Minaur | 6c | 247.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alcaraz | 77c | 223.27$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Minaur | 27c | 185.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…24d7backed Minaur | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Minaur | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Minaur | 13c | 135.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…f87ebacked Alcaraz | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Alcaraz | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…3800backed Alcaraz | 74c | 102.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -8.6wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…275ebacked Minaur | 13c | 99.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Minaur | 28c | 94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Minaur | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 847 | 36%305 W · 542 L | -35.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Minaur | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…3b8ebacked Minaur | 20c | 58.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Alcaraz | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Minaur | 30c | 49.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Minaur | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…d1b4backed Alcaraz | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Alcaraz | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Alcaraz | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Alcaraz | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…76d3backed Alcaraz | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…759ebacked Alcaraz | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Alcaraz | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Alcaraz | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Alcaraz | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Alcaraz | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c59…2c40backed Alcaraz | 74c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Alcaraz | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Minaurthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de MinaurAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)Alcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.