TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Alcaraz, Minaur
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,198
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,198 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb2f…eca9backed Minaur56c20,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,199.981625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Alcaraz44c10,060$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,633.827655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Alcaraz44c5,785$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.420844.2%92 W · 116 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Alcaraz44c2,551$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.6712949.6%64 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ba…bbb6backed Minaur60c1,276$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.143647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Alcaraz44c1,109$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.1225152.6%132 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Alcaraz53c1,080$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.5924340.3%98 W · 145 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur56c1,055$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.297,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Alcaraz43c1,050$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.3911647.4%55 W · 61 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Minaur46c1,022$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.5959151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Minaur57c999.98$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9914039.3%55 W · 85 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Alcaraz40c822.24$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.357,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Minaur59c799.99$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.998143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Minaur58c700$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-89.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Alcaraz44c650.72$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.284266.7%28 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Minaur60c575$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34512627.8%35 W · 91 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Alcaraz41c561$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.9938048.4%184 W · 196 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35dc…0083backed Minaur49c555.3$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.251323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-58.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ac…6ac9backed Alcaraz45c553.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.831947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Minaur50c539.94$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6816029.4%47 W · 113 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Alcaraz44c491.11$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.022,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Alcaraz41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.84025%10 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed Alcaraz41c441.47$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.6511850.8%60 W · 58 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e1…ab0fbacked Alcaraz44c350$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1962356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Alcaraz55c331.49$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.832,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Alcaraz39c300$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1823562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c37…3fd1backed Minaur60c299.17$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1793562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Minaur23c298.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc391…6cc8backed Alcaraz54c295.2$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.795149%25 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Alcaraz41c275.6$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.63537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Alcaraz38c274.16$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0634842.2%147 W · 201 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Alcaraz41c244$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.962568%17 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+49.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Minaur61c242.72$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14719846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d59…e0edbacked Alcaraz43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.565450%27 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Alcaraz42c218.93$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9813852.2%72 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x319e…de42backed Alcaraz47c210.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6616552.1%86 W · 79 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Alcaraz43c205$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.854434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Alcaraz44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb9d…c3eebacked Alcaraz54c184$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.871145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed Minaur59c175$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Alcaraz54c170.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6628952.6%152 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…e717backed Alcaraz42c169.79$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.482317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-60.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Alcaraz42c166.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6735944.8%161 W · 198 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182f…87d2backed Minaur63c160$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.315369.8%37 W · 16 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Alcaraz40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Minaur60c143.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…f87ebacked Alcaraz78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Alcaraz79c125.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8171857.7%414 W · 304 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…005fbacked Minaur62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623669.4%25 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e83…533bbacked Alcaraz45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Alcaraz40c88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.82,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Minaur57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025237.3%94 W · 158 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f17…9ab3backed Minaur70c78.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558666.3%57 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Alcaraz41c76.94$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6988455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Alcaraz42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4354348.1%261 W · 282 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b3f…3ba3backed Minaur60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked Alcaraz42c55.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.27751.9%40 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x741a…4dbebacked Alcaraz54c53.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Minaur57c51.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1615447.4%73 W · 81 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed Alcaraz41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.55040%20 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d3…3128backed Alcaraz45c49.71$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.511369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+33.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd420…01fcbacked Minaur61c49.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013158%76 W · 55 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Alcaraz48c48.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1652037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd65…3e60backed Alcaraz54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.33158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5700…a854backed Alcaraz44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4525544.3%113 W · 142 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bde…3800backed Minaur45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204740.4%19 W · 28 L-8.6wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-37.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Minaur45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019129.8%57 W · 134 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd243…3398backed Minaur46c43.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.856243.5%27 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ace…b219backed Minaur62c40.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512463.7%79 W · 45 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12af…6124backed Alcaraz41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95bb…213abacked Minaur60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d40…b4ecbacked Alcaraz43c31.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0313546.7%63 W · 72 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4508…5ef4backed Minaur50c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Minaur50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524931.3%78 W · 171 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Minaur57c28.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0529661.5%182 W · 114 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2694…415abacked Alcaraz40c25.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa52…3607backed Minaur55c24.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.746460.9%39 W · 25 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab5b…9b70backed Minaur57c23.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.