Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x612c71cc4d35f40a9867855457afcede0b2db65f923ee000949c84ab19b1c56e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Over | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 55c | 19,131$10,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,609.09 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Over | 49c | 1,477$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 1,454$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 745$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.25 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2073…385bbacked Over | 49c | 551.02$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 46c | 542$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.32 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 54c | 542$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.32 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 441.82$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.59 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Over | 49c | 166$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Under | 56c | 140.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 656 | 52.1%342 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 119$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 55c | 73.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under | 54c | 37.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked Under | 54c | 23.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 46c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d5…be9cbacked Over | 44c | 23.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 36.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de MinaurAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MinaurAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)Alcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.