Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e098e3d7c4569bebe4616288865e52f164c59704ca3263998a08da2b5602a0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 3,731$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.34 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 2,648$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…5aeebacked Over 3.5 | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.99 | 623 | 45.4%283 W · 340 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under 3.5 | 46c | 1,498$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.76 | 259 | 57.5%149 W · 110 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 1,148$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 1,001$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.8 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.14 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 541 | 38.1%206 W · 335 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 688.98$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 541.11$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.61 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over 3.5 | 58c | 516.11$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.01 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 511$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.27 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 493$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 461.51$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 459.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.12 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 261 | 51.7%135 W · 126 L | +18.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 326$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 299.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…9a58backed Under 3.5 | 42c | 291.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.32 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…05b1backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 240$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Under 3.5 | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 201.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Under 3.5 | 46c | 178.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 154$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked Over 3.5 | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 129.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 112$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Under 3.5 | 46c | 110.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under 3.5 | 46c | 109.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under 3.5 | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 94.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 91.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…e370backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…213abacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 87.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Under 3.5 | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over 3.5 | 33c | 83.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…e759backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…cadfbacked Under 3.5 | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…7f64backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over 3.5 | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 24.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 359 | 61.6%221 W · 138 L | +40.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 24.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…4103backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 21.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over 3.5 | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de MinaurAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MinaurAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)Alcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.