Token Launches · resolved market
Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4caa8b16f8d5e4f88e3ad4f68ebec05f60b1ed8b65dd62a89006597bcd0883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $396,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $370,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Yes | 5c | 41,822$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf069…7f74backed Yes | 0c | 12,196$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…24a8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Yes | 9c | 9,430$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked No | 77c | 8,752$6,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…f1d6backed Yes | 0c | 8,514$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,982$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…c8fbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,514$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccbe…bdc1backed Yes | 2c | 6,309$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…beb8backed Yes | 15c | 6,186$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfb…73e6backed Yes | 1c | 6,011$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 63c | 5,861$3,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…5dd3backed Yes | 8c | 5,239$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…0956backed Yes | 18c | 5,134$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…dda5backed Yes | 2c | 5,007$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…6edabacked Yes | 0c | 4,629$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…b4f1backed Yes | 1c | 4,235$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes | 35c | 3,667$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c36…cb44backed Yes | 32c | 3,373$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aee…a4c5backed Yes | 12c | 3,321$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…06b8backed Yes | 0c | 3,212$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2221…ec1bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 59c | 3,038$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.63 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 30c | 2,869$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…0fc2backed Yes | 18c | 2,838$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…faf1backed Yes | 6c | 2,782$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…200fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,743$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 72c | 2,510$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.4 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 67c | 2,457$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.11 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 2,410$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed No | 57c | 2,365$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.85 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed No | 76c | 2,319$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.94 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…9769backed Yes | 3c | 2,207$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…df65backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ed…3e26backed No | 69c | 2,007$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,924$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede7…e943backed Yes | 34c | 1,782$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…e64fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,774$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,709$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…cb75backed No | 67c | 1,653$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…457fbacked No | 62c | 1,650$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 70c | 1,614$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed No | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 1,487$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.7 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf688…b14ebacked No | 70c | 1,430$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d26…c578backed Yes | 7c | 1,416$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 9c | 1,392$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…7df8backed Yes | 33c | 1,383$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc344…1c10backed Yes | 11c | 1,319$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…ddbcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,299$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 70c | 1,224$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c67…68f5backed Yes | 19c | 1,176$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed No | 66c | 1,159$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,157$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…4e78backed Yes | 13c | 1,145$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c05…93f5backed Yes | 22c | 1,064$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed Yes | 19c | 1,063$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…0ea0backed Yes | 10c | 1,050$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…149bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,039$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…6f63backed Yes | 1c | 1,009$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…02a6backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…1319backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…3a01backed Yes | 31c | 998.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.69 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb9…4af8backed Yes | 31c | 984.99$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb519…addfbacked Yes | 4c | 932.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 913.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 906.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Yes | 3c | 890.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…57b9backed No | 68c | 881.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508a…717abacked Yes | 34c | 873.33$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.37 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 849.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…abc0backed Yes | 5c | 826.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 5c | 806.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdc…915abacked Yes | 8c | 797.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…80dcbacked No | 67c | 738.32$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 75c | 731.06$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.06 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2e…b7f7backed Yes | 36c | 723.14$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 64c | 699.04$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.19 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…ac2bbacked No | 62c | 672.59$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.87 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 66c | 670.45$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.95 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…ad5cbacked Yes | 27c | 665$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…038ebacked No | 68c | 653.54$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 74c | 649.34$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.08 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 60c | 618.36$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.27 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 25c | 603.03$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabe…10dbbacked Yes | 33c | 602.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 15c | 562.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…21cbbacked Yes | 3c | 545.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e4…16a6backed Yes | 15c | 544$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…30bbbacked Yes | 34c | 509.18$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…1332backed No | 55c | 506.72$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…e8abbacked Yes | 28c | 499.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Seeker FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Seeker FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.