Token Launches · resolved market
Seeker FDV above $150M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50576d841d6a75f0d8f441cc3c0a4d959aed1cfcdbf45ef2ff578047e38d4460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a16…6093backed Yes | 1c | 4,406$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 8c | 2,690$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,477.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…caf3backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…6edabacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…c9e4backed Yes | 29c | 1,336$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes | 50c | 845.82$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 28c | 843.38$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…57e6backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 10c | 640$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 46c | 634.44$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed Yes | 80c | 472.64$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…5dc1backed Yes | 75c | 411.87$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed No | 25c | 370.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.89 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…1184backed Yes | 11c | 350.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…e0efbacked No | 11c | 329.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 316.34$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d30bbacked Yes | 54c | 265$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…89abbacked Yes | 5c | 248.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed Yes | 15c | 241.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…fcf1backed Yes | 39c | 220$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 9c | 219.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…2dd6backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118a…83efbacked No | 12c | 188.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411b…ae57backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 20c | 109.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 12c | 81.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc27…be92backed No | 16c | 67.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +270.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…f773backed No | 80c | 64.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…8f53backed No | 24c | 63.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…a29cbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…2a64backed Yes | 79c | 23.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seeker FDV above $150M one day after launch?this page
- Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Seeker FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.