Token Launches · resolved market
Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c2775db0f8af5df55c4d9ccf7a10748ab9be69551b7b31a6cc21c87a2e43f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7fc…85a7backed Yes | 69c | 9,859$6,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +374.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,794$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 31c | 4,839$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 31c | 4,500$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 4,257$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…f1d6backed No | 2c | 4,007$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 2,917$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…8de6backed No | 33c | 2,266$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aee…a4c5backed Yes | 59c | 1,883$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833d…c788backed Yes | 66c | 1,733$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 1c | 1,707$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 33c | 1,600$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.39 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…d0b2backed No | 21c | 1,276$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 26c | 1,213$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.84 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4778backed Yes | 77c | 893.37$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed Yes | 9c | 873.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +507.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…5341backed Yes | 78c | 871.57$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 75c | 866.29$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.43 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118a…83efbacked No | 32c | 846.28$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…29d1backed Yes | 66c | 835.05$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…f99cbacked Yes | 68c | 765.14$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…3ecabacked Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.73per pick | 12cpaid | +733.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 645.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 2c | 620.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 614.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1042…fe36backed No | 34c | 599.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…1332backed No | 34c | 494.85$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba85…dec7backed Yes | 67c | 447.72$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…8b06backed Yes | 79c | 437.08$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Yes | 80c | 413.66$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed Yes | 67c | 411.34$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…da62backed Yes | 75c | 305.61$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked No | 36c | 300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked No | 7c | 287.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 13c | 266.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…53f5backed No | 5c | 236.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 233.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…16afbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…eee9backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…7361backed Yes | 67c | 151.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…fcf1backed Yes | 70c | 149.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec4…b8e5backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…e64fbacked Yes | 64c | 141.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…c43fbacked Yes | 75c | 132.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…64d5backed Yes | 68c | 128.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 26c | 112.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…ff05backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 15c | 99.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90d8…885abacked Yes | 71c | 97.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…7ef3backed No | 14c | 90.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b4bdbacked Yes | 65c | 76.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes | 78c | 76.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 66c | 76.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…374bbacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…b07ebacked Yes | 67c | 75.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595f…5ef1backed No | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…76bfbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…7d45backed Yes | 79c | 62.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…0009backed No | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…2bfabacked No | 27c | 51.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…5a21backed Yes | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea1…8b1bbacked Yes | 80c | 49.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…6311backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c82…75c1backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642d…3de0backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe3…d88cbacked Yes | 79c | 28.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…c795backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…19c5backed Yes | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…3730backed Yes | 78c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…a6dfbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…ce60backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Seeker FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.