Token Launches · resolved market
Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14127973813c196750d836ae2ca3696dab5af900b94ccc958c542176523eee64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe31a…0fc2backed Yes | 7c | 70,924$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,099.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 10,001$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.46 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c84…2302backed Yes | 11c | 9,484$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…6093backed Yes | 6c | 5,123$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…1f1ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,100$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 3,748$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,586$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,868$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,830$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…6524backed Yes | 4c | 1,628$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 1,461$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,397$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…21cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,320$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes | 8c | 1,246$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…9ba8backed Yes | 12c | 1,238$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa836…5eb3backed Yes | 2c | 1,184$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 1,173$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,096$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,065$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…b0cbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,023$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,006$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…e64fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c36…cb44backed Yes | 5c | 936.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 6c | 928.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…2efbbacked Yes | 12c | 850.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 799.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…30bbbacked Yes | 5c | 751.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda68…7ee2backed Yes | 6c | 600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…df9abacked Yes | 5c | 599.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…7d45backed Yes | 2c | 577.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…d1bcbacked Yes | 9c | 516.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 451.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 4c | 386.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…1184backed Yes | 3c | 371.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e0…a4aabacked Yes | 28c | 357.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 14c | 355.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 353.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 67c | 344.33$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Yes | 10c | 333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bd…8e5fbacked Yes | 7c | 326.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…5e1ebacked Yes | 7c | 293.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2540…43d2backed Yes | 4c | 286.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae80…ca34backed Yes | 12c | 254.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 209.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…095fbacked Yes | 10c | 207.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…617ebacked Yes | 6c | 169.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 7c | 149.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 146$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 78c | 99.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…5c69backed Yes | 27c | 82.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…9730backed Yes | 28c | 75.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Seeker FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Seeker FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Seeker FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.