Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x071b3cca07e10a721495830730d592ff37d48a146879fe9ff1d016d9d000e970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under 4.5 | 74c | 13,353$9,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Over 4.5 | 26c | 8,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Over 4.5 | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 290 | 45.9%133 W · 157 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over 4.5 | 30c | 2,910$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.92 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under 4.5 | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 595 | 53.8%320 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Over 4.5 | 19c | 1,316$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Over 4.5 | 29c | 1,213$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under 4.5 | 71c | 1,034$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over 4.5 | 26c | 1,002$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Over 4.5 | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under 4.5 | 73c | 821.92$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 4.5 | 71c | 757.19$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.57 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…ad49backed Under 4.5 | 80c | 666$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Under 4.5 | 63c | 558.57$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under 4.5 | 73c | 517.82$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Over 4.5 | 21c | 431.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 756 | 48.7%368 W · 388 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Over 4.5 | 36c | 369.57$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 975 | 40.1%391 W · 584 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 4.5 | 28c | 364.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under 4.5 | 71c | 358$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over 4.5 | 32c | 313.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Over 4.5 | 30c | 305.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 4.5 | 70c | 305.43$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 4.5 | 28c | 302.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Over 4.5 | 35c | 270.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under 4.5 | 70c | 261.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over 4.5 | 24c | 254.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…bdb8backed Under 4.5 | 65c | 254$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 152 | 63.8%97 W · 55 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over 4.5 | 26c | 254$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over 4.5 | 41c | 242.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…be5fbacked Over 4.5 | 27c | 242.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed Under 4.5 | 67c | 238.17$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…ec00backed Under 4.5 | 76c | 218.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 4.5 | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over 4.5 | 26c | 194.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over 4.5 | 53c | 189.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Over 4.5 | 55c | 182.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…2906backed Over 4.5 | 33c | 180.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…83a7backed Over 4.5 | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…213abacked Over 4.5 | 33c | 171.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over 4.5 | 24c | 169.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Under 4.5 | 68c | 156$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Over 4.5 | 44c | 141.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Over 4.5 | 19c | 138.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Over 4.5 | 22c | 116.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…fcf5backed Over 4.5 | 30c | 101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed Over 4.5 | 27c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…b19abacked Over 4.5 | 27c | 93.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…18b0backed Over 4.5 | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…aafcbacked Over 4.5 | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Over 4.5 | 30c | 82.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Under 4.5 | 74c | 79.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Over 4.5 | 37c | 72.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad1…20d8backed Over 4.5 | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over 4.5 | 27c | 67.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +96%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Over 4.5 | 40c | 66.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over 4.5 | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,128 | 27.9%315 W · 813 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad5…7492backed Over 4.5 | 34c | 58.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12e…7c8abacked Over 4.5 | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4094…11cfbacked Over 4.5 | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Over 4.5 | 40c | 50.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed Under 4.5 | 60c | 49.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over 4.5 | 46c | 49.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 129 | 42.6%55 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under 4.5 | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…578abacked Over 4.5 | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Over 4.5 | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…f63fbacked Over 4.5 | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under 4.5 | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…4b30backed Under 4.5 | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…742ebacked Under 4.5 | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…83b8backed Under 4.5 | 71c | 24.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 4.5 | 69c | 22.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under 4.5 | 71c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…89edbacked Under 4.5 | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak DjokovicAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Djokovic (+1.5)Alcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5)Djokovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.