Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5961f98886078caa37e329ab07cdaafd9f1c64a55d0137a23413bd11477b72cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 42c | 1,000$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.41 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 42c | 975.86$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.86 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Under | 35c | 926.88$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.47 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 58c | 775.86$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.86 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 58c | 722$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 66c | 713.68$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.69 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 63c | 157.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 63c | 151.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 42c | 116.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Over | 58c | 112.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…89edbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…15b1backed Under | 42c | 80.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…8d92backed Over | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 29c | 71.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…885fbacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Under | 46c | 59.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…6043backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +96%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…2679backed Over | 59c | 27.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Over | 64c | 27.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak DjokovicAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Djokovic (+1.5)Alcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5)Djokovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.