Serie A · resolved market
Will Napoli vs. Genoa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe49098f70b31b6e4bf60d14e513028a35c76aa24018045916da6a303b86aad16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 11,610$4,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,434.7 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 77c | 8,000$6,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 23c | 8,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 59c | 1,302$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 56c | 1,296$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.09 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 76c | 952.13$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.22 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 39c | 615.2$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.48 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 24c | 599.97$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 18c | 475$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 61c | 410$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 229.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…ea6cbacked No | 77c | 202.03$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 60c | 190$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 36c | 160.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 33c | 124.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 23c | 117.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 24c | 114.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 24c | 96.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 87.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 81.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 33c | 80.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 63c | 79.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 39c | 70.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Yes | 29c | 70.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Yes | 33c | 70.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli vs. Genoa end in a draw?this page
- Will Genoa win on 2025-10-05?No won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.