Serie A · resolved market
Will Genoa win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97001859007713a1867e5ac0b1e7d7734f4f391904a27c19c2bfd666a132e50a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 9c | 20,496$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.15 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 10c | 10,187$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.24 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 10c | 8,887$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Yes | 9c | 4,018$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Yes | 10c | 3,996$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,417$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,606$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.17 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 68c | 1,388$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 9c | 1,312$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8fe6backed No | 70c | 1,295$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,192$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked No | 74c | 860.8$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 28c | 837.71$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.56 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 26c | 818.91$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.63 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 29c | 658.18$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 11c | 600.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 60c | 488.15$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.26 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 9c | 475.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…9cd8backed No | 63c | 405.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 9c | 401.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 70c | 356.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…a5b1backed Yes | 9c | 326.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed No | 65c | 279.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…f02dbacked Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…097bbacked No | 70c | 209.86$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 208.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed No | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 10c | 199.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No | 62c | 160.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…9b71backed Yes | 10c | 100.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…aba8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…6b06backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43b…d47fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…1c07backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…f9dfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee74…20a6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Yes | 30c | 83.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed No | 69c | 66.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Yes | 40c | 55.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…42d2backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…d67bbacked Yes | 36c | 36.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f806backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Genoa win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Napoli vs. Genoa end in a draw?No won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.