TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,690,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,144,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,690,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80c6…3e50backed Yes7c61,637$4,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,524.77757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+133.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3915…faffbacked Yes4c27,756$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+131.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c26,059$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.965071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2d…2adcbacked Yes3c25,972$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c22,228$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c20,984$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.883103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes3c20,021$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.054320.9%9 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes1c19,444$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.22015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91cf…30d5backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c15,700$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.83588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes6c15,000$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.5522333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c10,891$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.824769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes6c10,841$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.6312629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ebf…4808backed Yes5c10,586$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+97.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes5c10,000$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.0417018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c9,944$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.7242120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes1c9,556$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.32per pick23cpaid+215.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes2c7,876$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1322627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed Yes1c7,693$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+101.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c7,409$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.73717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d9a…4841backed Yes1c7,027$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Yes1c7,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes2c6,496$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.47136.6%26 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes3c6,240$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.755829.3%17 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes1c5,800$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.724712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes3c5,657$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18321525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8644…7532backed Yes3c5,553$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611b…b334backed Yes3c5,100$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+396.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes1c5,030$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.361612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-71%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1616…896cbacked Yes2c4,967$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3190%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes1c4,526$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2928438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes2c4,240$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes4c4,003$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.14119.5%8 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes2c4,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdc…1ca9backed Yes8c3,906$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+66.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c3,745$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.714625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x315a…6d29backed Yes1c3,564$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes3c3,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0435…cf1dbacked Yes3c3,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca7…8cffbacked Yes1c3,401$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes1c3,400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.39244.6%41 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,397$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.544195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2153…6848backed Yes1c3,387$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9160%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d34…2896backed Yes3c3,291$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes1c3,200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes4c3,148$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1444224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbc…7a19backed Yes1c3,145$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa703…6a73backed Yes3c3,136$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9011944.5%53 W · 66 L-17.8wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes1c2,962$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255014%7 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c2,931$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes2c2,710$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.22544%11 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+69.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec23…ac24backed Yes2c2,632$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc1f…a246backed Yes3c2,573$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.562657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Yes1c2,541$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.49419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1edf…6be6backed Yes3c2,500$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…bd61backed Yes1c2,310$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes1c2,250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,168$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes4c2,135$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7542329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed8d…9415backed Yes3c2,118$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c2,065$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.35486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007142.3%30 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes2c2,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-91.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes2c2,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3913639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes2c2,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x247c…45a8backed Yes1c1,968$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,900$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.342036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaac6…bcd6backed Yes4c1,896$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes3c1,877$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19e2…d79bbacked Yes5c1,875$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9223…5e0cbacked Yes1c1,713$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed Yes1c1,701$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+899.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c1,664$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9821831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Yes5c1,600$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+203%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd5…4e74backed Yes1c1,599$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes2c1,488$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.259217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…8387backed Yes3c1,483$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa80…e4b8backed Yes4c1,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96cb…1c98backed Yes4c1,346$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes6c1,326$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.341650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5b…a44dbacked Yes2c1,262$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes1c1,256$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick5cpaid+193.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,199$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.142311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425b…18f1backed Yes2c1,155$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1470%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes5c1,091$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac6…a9c2backed Yes2c1,055$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c37…478bbacked Yes2c1,050$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c4…9508backed Yes1c1,033$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5383…3fa5backed Yes1c1,030$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61250%0 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81a5…5e5ebacked Yes1c1,023$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd131…9422backed Yes6c1,012$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa343…68d8backed Yes2c1,009$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+82.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c1,007$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.881693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7c…8cd7backed Yes1c1,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b61…be28backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ac…15f9backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3a…f76dbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.