TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Nuggets, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,333,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,541,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,333,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 866 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Warriors53c1,326,767$696,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629,799.5115443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5afb…4511backed Nuggets47c1,027,885$483,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483,010.045540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dbf…53bebacked Nuggets49c636,340$310,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310,969.821637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Warriors52c418,509$218,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200,337.922,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Warriors52c220,637$114,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,078.320253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nuggets51c207,339$105,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,424.4185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Nuggets47c163,000$77,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,039.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Warriors51c159,523$81,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,586.128843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Warriors62c113,185$70,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,107.655664.3%36 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x250c…88cabacked Nuggets0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-38.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Nuggets46c100,000$46,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,199.814025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Nuggets63c70,369$44,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,537.0347448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff6…a199backed Nuggets46c64,893$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.941353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Warriors50c60,000$29,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,20026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Nuggets48c52,000$24,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,96011535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Nuggets49c42,471$20,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,635.712740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Warriors50c40,665$20,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,338.4166853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Warriors53c37,181$19,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,475.132665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Nuggets47c34,828$16,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,274.6419249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Nuggets47c30,884$14,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,601.798333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Warriors53c30,000$15,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,099.951,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc659…e925backed Nuggets47c28,500$13,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,395450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Warriors32c27,035$8,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,336.5127917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors53c26,398$13,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,405.2274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Warriors54c24,240$13,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,158.969852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Warriors35c24,000$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,499.9912334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Nuggets70c22,379$15,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,605.5147144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Warriors65c21,773$14,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,555.483348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets72c21,271$15,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,248.343,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Nuggets50c20,042$10,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,02114856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Warriors54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2001,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nuggets51c20,000$10,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,224.611,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…d32abacked Nuggets47c20,000$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,400475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+62.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Warriors54c20,000$10,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,299.9817658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Warriors53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,399.979650%48 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Nuggets70c19,545$13,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,623.65959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Warriors53c19,000$10,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,929.837149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Nuggets53c18,667$9,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,927.2436148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Warriors49c16,646$8,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,430.551,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Warriors54c16,087$8,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,400.0543051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Nuggets50c16,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Nuggets48c15,316$7,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,324.7716942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Warriors33c15,000$4,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,120.345646.4%26 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Warriors52c15,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.9820248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a3…8a3dbacked Warriors31c14,516$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,016.131838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Warriors54c14,295$7,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,580.630053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Nuggets61c13,857$8,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,440.935246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…2032backed Nuggets47c13,192$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,200.013630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Warriors32c13,110$4,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,971.125847.3%122 W · 136 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Warriors34c12,700$4,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,349.2425925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets58c11,758$6,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,790.953,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9599…3c20backed Warriors30c11,360$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,951.386428.1%18 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b6…a912backed Nuggets54c11,074$5,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,998.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb46…8a9abacked Warriors54c10,700$5,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,922540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Nuggets50c10,338$5,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,169.0447751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6660…e942backed Warriors54c10,300$5,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,738633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Warriors57c10,126$5,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,388.641848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0cd…66d6backed Nuggets47c10,070$4,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,694.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Nuggets51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10059646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Nuggets50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00013063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nuggets66c9,923$6,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,530.131,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x736b…41d3backed Nuggets47c9,676$4,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,531.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x576d…767dbacked Warriors52c9,500$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,559.992245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e6…70c4backed Nuggets47c9,000$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,230425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nuggets51c8,555$4,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,362.9292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…6ebfbacked Nuggets74c8,428$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,200250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a0…edb6backed Warriors54c8,400$4,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,864366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Warriors54c7,745$4,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,591.8571052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nuggets52c7,513$3,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,937.9681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Warriors53c7,500$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5256152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…8f58backed Nuggets47c7,462$3,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5076241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets64c7,019$4,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,465.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Warriors53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2903663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Warriors52c6,871$3,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,306.793237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors53c6,800$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1961,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Warriors39c6,682$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,104.7461851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Warriors52c6,500$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Warriors52c6,330$3,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.199849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Nuggets74c6,005$4,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,453.597939.2%31 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nuggets61c5,977$3,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,635.881,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x474b…a13cbacked Nuggets49c5,733$2,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,796.91233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Warriors54c5,281$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,427.5515549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Warriors35c5,145$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.2341742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Warriors48c5,101$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,652.5222752%118 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Warriors31c5,043$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,467.4234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Nuggets53c5,004$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,671.885250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Warriors53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350.0275347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Warriors30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Warriors42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9003100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+166.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Nuggets50c4,882$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.324151.9%125 W · 116 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Nuggets50c4,798$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.0312941.1%53 W · 76 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Nuggets44c4,650$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.8212160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Warriors28c4,620$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,311.031,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Warriors49c4,600$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,33645348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors52c4,591$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.559,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Warriors48c4,221$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.4476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Nuggets47c4,170$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9604259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Nuggets46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Nuggets47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8801471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca1…0979backed Nuggets47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.