TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$567,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$572,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $567,986 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f59…1176backed Warriors51c30,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,7001464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Nuggets49c22,014$10,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,786.6447848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…d2d0backed Nuggets49c21,000$10,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,2901266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Warriors51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8009650%48 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe6a6…7538backed Warriors51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,350966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce8…9ea5backed Nuggets49c8,843$4,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,333.07862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d14…3bedbacked Warriors51c8,514$4,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,171.861060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b37…4e5abacked Nuggets49c8,378$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,105.221145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f28…ce03backed Warriors51c8,223$4,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38cd…79c4backed Nuggets49c7,517$3,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.33944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x015e…3954backed Warriors51c7,410$3,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,630.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7878…d30bbacked Nuggets49c7,084$3,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,471.16955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8329…e118backed Warriors51c6,963$3,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,411.871154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79f1…6e8dbacked Nuggets49c6,564$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,216.361346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81b…a52bbacked Warriors51c6,344$3,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.561050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3cdcbacked Nuggets49c6,337$3,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,105.172650%13 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d9…b6ffbacked Nuggets49c6,164$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.36850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf9…6927backed Warriors51c5,928$3,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,904.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b6…f481backed Nuggets49c5,866$2,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.34850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3914…a493backed Warriors51c5,812$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,847.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdc5…7d2ebacked Nuggets49c5,783$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe43d…a201backed Warriors51c5,525$2,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,707.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b55…3141backed Nuggets49c5,480$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.21030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4b3…c419backed Warriors51c5,115$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.351172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+45.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfb7…5f51backed Warriors51c4,920$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,410.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec53…e599backed Warriors51c4,916$2,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,408.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb8…4b2cbacked Nuggets49c4,889$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d0…fa41backed Warriors51c4,889$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1922…3f90backed Warriors51c4,772$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.281553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81c0…517ebacked Nuggets49c4,763$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.87650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ad…2e85backed Warriors51c4,649$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,278.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd51…a4bdbacked Nuggets49c4,593$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa9…f37ebacked Nuggets49c4,465$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcde8…8b09backed Warriors51c4,370$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.31361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b2…318cbacked Warriors51c4,277$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,095.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc943…7626backed Nuggets49c4,227$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.231050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd4af…1fa6backed Warriors51c4,156$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x608e…80b7backed Nuggets49c4,049$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4731…4e09backed Warriors51c4,029$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Warriors51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.984252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8844…5adbbacked Nuggets49c3,997$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab6d…61f6backed Warriors51c3,954$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.461154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36be…e8a7backed Nuggets49c3,873$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.771225%3 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7586…e8f3backed Warriors51c3,814$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc410…be3bbacked Nuggets49c3,787$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb229…0591backed Nuggets49c3,766$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc04…01f1backed Warriors51c3,760$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x408d…2bccbacked Warriors51c3,748$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.521163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9875…70f5backed Warriors51c3,655$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.95862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1253…9868backed Nuggets49c3,646$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.54933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b7a…a385backed Nuggets49c3,631$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.191040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1d…ee79backed Nuggets49c3,627$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.23742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5671…6e56backed Warriors51c3,589$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.61785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick49cpaid+76.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x10ed…a272backed Nuggets49c3,532$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.68650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d1…d5b0backed Nuggets49c3,491$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.591154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x341b…e11dbacked Warriors51c3,448$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.52988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick49cpaid+81.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfa65…c869backed Nuggets49c3,402$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x678c…c278backed Nuggets49c3,397$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1c4…72e9backed Warriors51c3,268$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x807b…ea2fbacked Warriors51c3,202$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.98875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa544…e40fbacked Nuggets49c3,194$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.06875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5d9…e50fbacked Nuggets49c3,183$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.67933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45dc…92afbacked Nuggets49c3,171$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.791145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c49…1e67backed Nuggets49c3,128$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.721163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1552…92b3backed Warriors51c3,110$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d42…e4d1backed Warriors51c3,100$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Warriors50c3,064$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.978843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacac…a99ebacked Nuggets49c2,976$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-36.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d4…63adbacked Warriors51c2,952$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821a…d2bbbacked Warriors51c2,916$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.841060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d8…5a80backed Warriors51c2,915$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.351050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08bf…574ebacked Nuggets49c2,909$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3aa…5044backed Warriors51c2,894$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.06966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcca3…a61ebacked Warriors51c2,851$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e69…82c9backed Warriors51c2,816$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.84875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3bc…1550backed Nuggets49c2,791$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.59862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb690…8efbbacked Warriors51c2,788$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.121070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x402d…2a64backed Nuggets49c2,776$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.24742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3263…2f28backed Nuggets49c2,768$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.32977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x173b…baf5backed Warriors51c2,732$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8162…426abacked Warriors51c2,718$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.82742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3134…ef9abacked Nuggets49c2,712$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0c…af73backed Warriors51c2,706$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.941040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fd…1409backed Warriors51c2,691$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.59850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets48c2,636$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.398,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e2…80c8backed Warriors51c2,620$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf7…3ff1backed Nuggets49c2,575$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ac…d507backed Nuggets49c2,538$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa7…08f7backed Nuggets49c2,503$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.471145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9754…6501backed Nuggets49c2,475$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.75475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6af7…a0a3backed Nuggets49c2,426$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.741060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590f…5b28backed Nuggets49c2,244$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.56944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf458…c988backed Warriors51c2,243$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.07825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa899…bb29backed Warriors51c2,240$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.61050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x455e…ecacbacked Nuggets49c2,154$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x684b…0b72backed Warriors51c2,111$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-56.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e4c…94ecbacked Nuggets49c2,063$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35f0…bc6bbacked Warriors51c2,028$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.72850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Nuggets50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008347%39 W · 44 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5094…a296backed Warriors51c1,981$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.691060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.