Token Launches · resolved market
Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnL
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe866a852792a1787e18a4b7e70086c7fc88fb161206b89348be83491bdf4f469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mitchof Mitch, Rektober
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4f0…9385backed Mitch | 65c | 7,206$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Mitch | 59c | 6,299$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,588.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b2…582dbacked Rektober | 39c | 3,416$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Rektober | 35c | 2,645$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Mitch | 77c | 1,811$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Rektober | 15c | 1,125$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Rektober | 15c | 1,006$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Rektober | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Rektober | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Mitch | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Mitch | 63c | 929.75$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Rektober | 15c | 791.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Rektober | 34c | 691.78$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fa…0cb8backed Rektober | 2c | 637.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Rektober | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Mitch | 50c | 460$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Mitch | 52c | 451.94$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Mitch | 4c | 442.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 11cpaid | +664.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Mitch | 50c | 436.27$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.24 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Rektober | 33c | 390.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Mitch | 46c | 343.93$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.17 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Rektober | 49c | 305$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Rektober | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…464dbacked Mitch | 55c | 273.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Rektober | 25c | 249.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0932…9d92backed Rektober | 53c | 222.73$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Rektober | 20c | 200.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mitch | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Rektober | 24c | 199.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…9c04backed Rektober | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…169fbacked Mitch | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Mitch | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Rektober | 31c | 124.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…165abacked Rektober | 33c | 112.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…2526backed Rektober | 30c | 109.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Rektober | 26c | 103.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…6aecbacked Rektober | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Mitch | 45c | 98.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Mitch | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…5d34backed Mitch | 71c | 77.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Mitch | 39c | 69.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699e…55bcbacked Mitch | 73c | 68.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…5a84backed Rektober | 66c | 68.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…0d45backed Rektober | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Rektober | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…7626backed Rektober | 45c | 52.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Mitch | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Mitch | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Rektober | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Mitch | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…1332backed Rektober | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.