World Politics · resolved market
Another France debt downgrade by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad84023bf7a64f70426a14f63c379a578b2c647eb5a2b76ab73469e7abcc002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…35a9backed No | 1c | 3,492$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked No | 44c | 2,250$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 66c | 2,196$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.73 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 9c | 1,786$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed Yes | 56c | 1,758$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 44c | 1,541$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.88 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…9762backed No | 34c | 1,413$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 34c | 676.37$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.63 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed No | 44c | 621.07$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 47c | 557.62$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 18c | 495.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…99cfbacked No | 32c | 491.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3afa…99b0backed Yes | 73c | 456.44$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…6635backed No | 45c | 455.55$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed No | 27c | 441.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…d775backed Yes | 55c | 440$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…3e1cbacked Yes | 55c | 440$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…9b88backed Yes | 54c | 438.3$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed No | 44c | 427.06$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 46c | 401.12$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.52 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 76c | 383.79$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +295.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 62c | 382.19$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…a9d0backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd06…d92dbacked No | 38c | 366.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…fcc9backed Yes | 69c | 357.38$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e9…ed08backed No | 45c | 355.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed No | 31c | 323.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…0e3abacked Yes | 65c | 311.84$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 52c | 299.75$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.04 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…9179backed Yes | 60c | 269.77$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 53c | 258.95$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 56c | 250$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 60c | 249.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 15c | 245.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…2123backed Yes | 76c | 237.89$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 14c | 224.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…f383backed No | 48c | 210.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 56c | 202.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…97f8backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…779abacked No | 52c | 192.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 58c | 177.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…f610backed No | 48c | 169.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 163.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 55c | 162.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 75c | 160.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 25c | 156.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 76c | 137.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 45c | 129.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…621fbacked No | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 16c | 119.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 118.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…efffbacked Yes | 68c | 116.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…0383backed No | 46c | 110.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…0fc1backed Yes | 78c | 108.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked Yes | 80c | 101.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…a8f0backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0927…3048backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…a3e1backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed No | 53c | 99.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 60c | 89.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…d710backed Yes | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…4badbacked No | 48c | 73.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…f899backed Yes | 77c | 65.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed No | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edd…4edfbacked No | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4926backed Yes | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…a7acbacked Yes | 63c | 55.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…cdf5backed Yes | 76c | 51.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…3a06backed No | 44c | 51.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…4d20backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…b3c8backed Yes | 60c | 49.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…fb1abacked Yes | 59c | 47.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9218…51bebacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…eed2backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…faf1backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…4260backed No | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…46f9backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…2eafbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…b365backed Yes | 71c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e4…e649backed No | 41c | 28.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…a0e4backed No | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…e69cbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…f07abacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +272.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…d9a1backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…2a90backed Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…05d5backed Yes | 69c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +199%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.