World Politics · resolved market
North Korea missile launch by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb10c829fdee96c0a0ab20404dac51d1b1bfc007741e78c96ba33a8e7cb145190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85ec…19aabacked No | 12c | 4,258$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 9c | 4,199$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.73 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 17c | 3,570$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.76 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +1,615.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,201$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.95 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 17c | 1,745$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.31per pick | 15cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,483$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +335.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 3c | 1,359$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.17 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,310$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.45 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 17c | 1,190$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…caf8backed Yes | 18c | 1,084$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +441.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 799.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.96 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 776.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.63 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…b73abacked Yes | 4c | 700.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +538.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 49c | 556$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 79c | 398.31$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 12c | 342.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…ce16backed No | 5c | 312.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 53c | 304.86$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.8 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 277.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…435abacked Yes | 64c | 256.18$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 12c | 246$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 239.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 20c | 158.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…0a28backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 15c | 72.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 24c | 68.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 46c | 45.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 65c | 41.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 50c | 41.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.