Fed Rates · resolved market
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c680c6b3351999a077a4bd43bc0b5b77fd648325ef610b0d5754f89b5d97a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 61c | 7,197$4,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,407.58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 5,770$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.62 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 36c | 4,839$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…de88backed Yes | 12c | 4,151$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 11c | 4,048$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.31 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 15c | 3,934$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.85 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 73c | 3,555$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.48 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 4c | 2,974$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 75c | 2,854$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.49 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 36c | 2,431$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 10c | 1,879$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.69 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed No | 69c | 1,757$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.21 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 65c | 1,698$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.78 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 63c | 1,507$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 32c | 1,454$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,403$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 9c | 1,350$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 29c | 1,337$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 72c | 1,232$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 36c | 1,140$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.11 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed No | 61c | 1,091$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 28c | 977.36$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.24 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 959.83$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.45 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 4c | 894.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed No | 64c | 881.29$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 70c | 819.16$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.47 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 13c | 780$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 65c | 700$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.8 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 34c | 682.23$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 29c | 665.19$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…012dbacked No | 70c | 663.3$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed No | 76c | 589$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…f2edbacked Yes | 35c | 567.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 63c | 544$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 27c | 523.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 24c | 478$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…dbbcbacked No | 64c | 472.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 63c | 457.12$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 57c | 416.26$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.99 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 61c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 68c | 379.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 7c | 354.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 79c | 348.94$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 71c | 340$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 35c | 335.37$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 64c | 279.74$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 64c | 276.48$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…b2a1backed Yes | 36c | 275.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 270.96$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…6006backed No | 66c | 268$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 37c | 267.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 68c | 248.32$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc433…2937backed Yes | 33c | 242.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…392dbacked Yes | 35c | 236$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 43c | 220.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 27c | 220$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 30c | 188.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 7c | 175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 59c | 168.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…4ea3backed Yes | 37c | 165$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc793…9fccbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked No | 65c | 154.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 69c | 149.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba37…6261backed Yes | 21c | 140.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 33c | 140.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 74c | 136.4$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 116.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes | 31c | 111.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 109.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4b…522ebacked Yes | 14c | 106.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 43c | 93.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 66c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 57c | 85.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 70c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 36c | 68.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…633fbacked Yes | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…905abacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…f22fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…a5efbacked Yes | 40c | 44.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…96b4backed No | 61c | 40.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no one dissent September Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?Yes won
- Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.