TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will no one dissent September Fed decision?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes61c7,197$4,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,407.581717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick32cpaid+469.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c5,770$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,093.6210545.7%48 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes36c4,839$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.621942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6359…de88backed Yes12c4,151$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes11c4,048$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.315028%14 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes15c3,934$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.854721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No73c3,555$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.485431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No4c2,974$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.041315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+220.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No75c2,854$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.491283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes36c2,431$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.232138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No5c2,400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2802157.1%12 W · 9 L+9.2wins+0.44per pick14cpaid+420%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes10c1,879$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.695230.8%16 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed No69c1,757$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.212138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No65c1,698$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.784847.9%23 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed No63c1,507$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes32c1,454$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.74911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes39c1,403$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.731942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Yes9c1,350$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.67742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes29c1,337$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.162725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No72c1,232$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.341764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes36c1,140$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.116421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x086d…fe29backed No61c1,091$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.661435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes28c977.36$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.243013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c959.83$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.4518135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes4c894.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.21238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed No64c881.29$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No70c819.16$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.472035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes13c780$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.61656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No65c700$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.88333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes34c682.23$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes29c665.19$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.293834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x174c…012dbacked No70c663.3$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.351428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed No76c589$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-67%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06da…f2edbacked Yes35c567.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No63c544$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.084936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes27c523.41$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.921154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes24c478$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.061540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa0…dbbcbacked No64c472.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No63c457.12$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.281118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-73.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No57c416.26$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.991513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed No61c400$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1581741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No68c379.99$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2812322.8%28 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes7c354.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No79c348.94$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.931758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No71c340$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.621060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes35c335.37$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.33727%10 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes11c300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb4…21c1backed No64c279.74$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.051631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed No64c276.48$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.952045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe95d…b2a1backed Yes36c275.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001650%8 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c270.96$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9924046.3%111 W · 129 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb96…6006backed No66c268$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.01580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+91.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed Yes37c267.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007017.1%12 W · 58 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No68c248.32$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.934415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc433…2937backed Yes33c242.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf6…392dbacked Yes35c236$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes43c220.1$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.444829.2%14 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes27c220$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.42450%12 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes30c188.23$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.884837.5%18 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes7c175$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.258953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No59c168.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.897737.7%29 W · 48 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6677…4ea3backed Yes37c165$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-70.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc793…9fccbacked Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc924…567abacked No65c154.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5921…3e13backed No66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.521233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed No69c149.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba37…6261backed Yes21c140.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes33c140.8$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.463125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+276.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked No74c136.4$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c116.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9620021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes27c115$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6510324.3%25 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes31c111.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.511428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c109.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.743187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f4b…522ebacked Yes14c106.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-52.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a1d…5048backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.11612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8b9…403dbacked No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-81.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed Yes43c93.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No67c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.851361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No66c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes24c88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.812810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No57c85.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.42333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No60c85$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342020%4 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-40.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No70c78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.141266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes36c68.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No65c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232528%7 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea45…633fbacked Yes34c61.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+46.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f4d…905abacked No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x686a…966bbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.621154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e6…f22fbacked Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0df…a5efbacked Yes40c44.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda03…96b4backed No61c40.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+107.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes34c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55da…839abacked No80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.