Fed Rates · resolved market
Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea7ce1d4fb29112d3d70b32fc879cd57a95d1b3b17e03304168fe4f8400bf9a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 4c | 7,714$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 19c | 3,867$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.11 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 1c | 1,919$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.82 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 29c | 1,498$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.38 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 29c | 1,416$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 1,343$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 1,314$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.62 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 78c | 1,028$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 25c | 776.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.72 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 763.32$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.85 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 37c | 721.12$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 22c | 648.68$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.07 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 39c | 620$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 5c | 574.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.41 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…4a6fbacked No | 61c | 542.85$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 72c | 532.79$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.28 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 57c | 482$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 20c | 474.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…f2edbacked Yes | 21c | 474.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…a560backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 26c | 309.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe470…b6e2backed No | 64c | 250$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 248.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.16 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed No | 75c | 230$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed No | 62c | 222$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed No | 75c | 198$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 48c | 189.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 58c | 185.84$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 74c | 161.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 26c | 152.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e2…998abacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…a8d0backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 65c | 125.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…d309backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +130%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 100.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 25c | 100.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…3655backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes | 25c | 98.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 88.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 66c | 80.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…0f12backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 69c | 50.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…b568backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…8f82backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 30c | 34.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed No | 78c | 20.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent September Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.